How our weather makes economy blow hot and cold

WITH the weather influencing much of what we eat and wear, keeping shops stocked accordingly can be a nightmare.

But a report yesterday revealed the huge cost to business of making a mistake.

As much as 6 per cent of sales of consumer goods – worth £8.7billion annually – vary according to whether it is warm or cold. These range from hot and cold drinks to ready meals, soups and even washing powders.

The research comes as forecasters predicted a freezing ‘Arctic plunge’ over the coming days after weeks of unseasonably mild temperatures.

According to the study, the impact of the sun and rain on buying habits is particularly marked within certain categories.

Around 4.5 per cent of food and drinks sales are linked to changes in the weather, but when it comes to hearty staples such as soup, ready meals and hot drinks, sales can swing by up to 25 per cent.

Some firms benefit from a £1.5billion boost to sales from an Indian

‘The impact can be huge’

summer, but much less from a cold wet autumn.

Some effects are obvious – sparkling wine and BBQ meats see sales spike in hot weather; red wine and Indian ready meals in cold.

David Bird, of the Weather Channel, which carried out the study, said: ‘For retailers, slight changes in temperature can have dramatic effects on people’s purchasing decisions. Ensuring the right amount of a product is on shelves throughout the country is a key challenge.’

The companies that succeed are those that plan for different conditions.

During the last big freeze, online grocer Ocado had winter tyres for its vans and was unaffected by the snow. Customers at Tesco were able to shop at its stores because it had bought snowblowing machines and trained staff the previous summer in how to use them.

Mr Bird said there were three core reasons that influence shopping behaviour.

The first is physiological, where sunshine means consumers need sun cream or water to cope.

The next is psychological, which sees demand grow for comfort foods in winter and healthier foods in the summer. Lastly, shoppers make some purchases based simply on lifestyle, buying items such as Pimm’s or BBQ foods because of personal preference.

Different categories are affected in different ways. Cigarette consumption peaks between June and August and is at its lowest point in January, when smoking outside is less pleasant.

Unsurprisingly, demand for deo dorant also peaks in the summer. In pharmaceuticals, the products that are almost wholly weather dependent are those for coughs and colds, which are worth £444million, and hay fever remedies, valued at £108million.

Mr Bird says the effects of the weather are only set to become more unpredictable as conditions change.

Global warming means more periods of abnormal weather, such as periods of hot, cold or wet weather, and an increase in the frequency of severe weather, such as snow storms or flooding.

He said: ‘Unseasonal weather can have an enormous impact on UK businesses, just as much as extreme weather events.

‘For many sectors of the economy – retail, transport, the utilities, leisure and food – the impact of unexpected weather can be huge.’