Polls show referendum is still on a knife-edge

THE outcome of this week’s EU referendum still rests ‘on a knife-edge’, Britain’s leading elections expert said last night.

The value of the pound and the London stock market surged yesterday as investors bet that Britain would stay in the European Union.

But Professor John Curtice, whose exit poll was the only one to predict the Tories would win last year’s general election, said the outcome was too close to call. Research body NatCen, where Professor Curtice is a senior research fellow, will today publish a unique survey suggesting Remain has a narrow 53 to 47-point lead over Leave.

Professor Curtice, president of the British Polling Council, said the lead was ‘within the margin of error’, meaning a tied result, or even a Brexit vote, was still possible. ‘It is important to remember that the outcome looks so close that any lead should be treated with caution,’ he said.

The survey was carried out in more detail than normal polls. It was conducted over a one-month period ending on 12 June, with two-thirds of the interviews conducted before the end of May, when support for Brexit began to grow. The value of the pound has fallen in recent weeks as polls showed mounting public support for leaving the EU. But with polls suggesting the Brexit surge has slowed, markets enjoyed a bumper day.

The FTSE 100 index jumped 3 per cent or 182.91 points to 6204 – adding £47.5billion to the value of the UK’s leading companies. Sterling also surged on its best day since October 2008. The pound was up 2.5 per cent against the dollar to $1.47, and 2 per cent against the euro to €1.30.

Analysts said the rally reflected mounting confidence that Britain will stay in the EU. Oliver Jones, of Capital Economics, said: ‘The Leave campaign’s earlier momentum appears to have stalled, improving sentiment in markets.’ And Matt Brief, of trading firm IG Group, said: ‘Traders are clearly expecting a swing to Remain.’

But City commentator David Buik warned against making hyperbolic anti-Brexit economic predictions, saying: ‘The Government have a duty of care to advise us as to volatility, but to virtually suggest Armageddon is just plain daft.’