Boost for low paid outside EU

CRACKING down on migration from the European Union after Brexit will increase wages for the low paid, a report found.

Experts said immigration restrictions under a so-called ‘hard’ Brexit would lead to a relatively modest rise in wages for those in low-skilled jobs.

If net EU migration was cut by 150,000 as a result of strict curbs, pay in sectors such as construction, retail, hospitality, food processing and agriculture could go up, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

The think-tank said pay for UK nationals in low income jobs could rise cumulatively by 0.82 per cent by 2030 – a total of around £150.

But it warned the wage increases would be more than offset by damage to the economy caused by Brexit. The NIESR said the fall in migrant workers would see overall GDP per capita – the output of the country divided by the number of people – fall ‘significantly’ by 5.4 per cent. But the think-tank said the ‘extreme scenario’ might be needed so Prime Minister Theresa May could hit her 100,000-a-year net migration target.

Limiting free movement to the UK is at the top of No10’s priorities for Brexit. Figures released this month showed a record 284,000 EU nationals entered the UK in the year ending in June. Total net migration – the difference between those arriving and leaving – was at a near record of 335,000.

NIESR research fellow Jonathan Portes and his co-author Giuseppe Forte admitted their figures for future migration were based on assumptions that ‘will, inevitably, prove to be inaccurate’.

A Downing Street spokesman said: ‘I’d just point to Jonathan Portes’ own words when he said there was a fair degree of doubt around their findings.’