Brexit and the SNP’s tiresome game of bluff and bluster

THE First Minister’s reaction was as predictable as it was illogical. After Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit speech, during which she ruled out the United Kingdom being a member of the single market after it leaves the European Union, Nicola Sturgeon said Scotland had moved closer to a second independence referendum.

Mrs May’s speech was, in truth, little more than a statement of the downright obvious. After six months of speculation and ill-informed chatter about whether the UK could retain single market membership, the Prime Minister said this could not possibly be so because it would mean ‘not leaving the EU at all’.

The shades of grey have been erased, leaving the stark black and white fact that once the UK is out, it will no longer be part of the formal trading arrangement that exists across the EU.

Shortly after the Prime Minister’s speech concluded yesterday, Miss Sturgeon said the plan outlined by Mrs May was not in Scotland’s interest. It threatened, she said, to be ‘economically catastrophic’.

Getting into her stride, the First Minister added that she had seen no evidence that ‘Scotland’s voice’ was being listened to and warned the PM that this must change.

Miss Sturgeon – one of the great contemporary practitioners of the politics of grievance – assumed on Scotland’s behalf the mantle of defenceless victim.

‘It seems,’ she said, ‘the Westminster Tory Government now think they can do anything to Scotland and get away with it.

Impact

‘They must start to understand how wrong they are. The UK Government cannot be allowed to take us out of the EU and the single market, regardless of the impact on our economy, jobs, living standards and our reputation as an open, tolerant country, without Scotland having the ability to choose between that and a different future.

‘With her comments today, the Prime Minister has only succeeded in making that choice more likely.’

Some or all of that might have the ring of familiarity. It certainly should because it’s precisely the argument the First Minister has been making since June 24, the day after the UK voted by 52-48 to leave the EU.

Miss Sturgeon has bluffed and blustered about that result (which compared with a vote of 62-38 for Remain in Scotland) making a second referendum inevitable, even as polls show the Brexit vote has done nothing to boost support for Scottish independence.

The First Minister’s insistence that she is driven in this matter by the need to protect Scotland, economically, crumbles at the slightest prod. There is simply no logic to what she says.

If Miss Sturgeon’s concern is that the loss of membership of the EU single market would be a disaster for Scotland, then Scottish independence is not a credible solution.

An independent Scotland would start its life not only outside the EU, but outside the UK single market. Behind Miss Sturgeon’s powerful rhetoric about protecting Scotland lies the truth that her solution to the UK becoming isolated from former partners is to make Scotland even more isolated.

Miss Sturgeon and her predecessor Alex Salmond (who tweeted after Mrs May’s speech, ‘May says she will listen to Scotland. Fine. We would like to stay in the world’s largest single market and stay prosperous. #MayForkedTongue’) have never tried to work with the UK Government on Brexit, despite the Prime Minister imploring them to do so.

But why would they? The SNP’s priority is not the maintenance of EU membership but the break-up of the UK.

Yesterday, the Prime Minister offered co-operation with the Scottish Government, saying that its proposals would be considered during Brexit negotiations – but the truth is that the SNP has precisely zero interest in working with the UK Government on this matter. A good grievance shall not be wasted, even if it means losing the power to influence the way in which the UK departs the European club.

If Miss Sturgeon is to be taken at her word, Mrs May’s speech would appear to make a second independence referendum not only more likely but a certainty.

Last October, the First Minister said that if the UK Government did not help broker a deal (an impossible deal, mark you) to keep Scotland in the single market even if the UK leaves, she would ‘make sure’ Scotland had the chance to choose ‘a better future’.

Only last week, the First Minister ruled out a second referendum in 2017. There is one reason she did so: the SNP would not win. If Miss Sturgeon was confident that she could lead the Yes campaign to victory where Mr Salmond failed, the she would have Scotland at the polls tomorrow.

Not only does Miss Sturgeon know that she doesn’t have the support she needs to break up the UK, she appears not to know how to built momentum behind her separatist proposal.

Shrill rhetoric about Scotland being ‘dragged out of the EU against its will’ has left the pro-UK majority resolutely unmoved. Few would bet on Mrs May’s speech changing that reality.

The First Minister has built a reputation as a decisive and competent politician but she appears all at sea over Brexit.

Position

One could forgive her equivocation on the matter while the UK Government had not made clear its position (and what a long time coming that was) but now that the Prime Minister has spelled out the reality of Brexit, surely it’s time for Miss Sturgeon to be equally assured?

Mrs May’s remarks yesterday should leave nobody in any doubt about what Brexit will mean for the UK – that’s the entire UK, including Scotland – and, this being so, one might have expected Miss Sturgeon to stop bluffing and play her hand. If the First Minister was at all confident that Scots faced with a ‘hard’ Brexit would prefer independence, then yesterday was the day she should have announced that Indyref 2 was good to go.

When Miss Sturgeon and her colleagues began spinning the line two years ago about a situation in which the UK voted to leave the EU while a majority of Scots wished to remain, she did so safe in the belief that things would not play out as she described.

The First Minister, in common with senior politicians across the political spectrum, was confident that the Remain campaign would win the day. Her hypothesis was not a serious political strategy but a neat piece of grievance-mongering to keep her supporters happy.

Victory last June for the Leave campaign caught the First Minister unawares and forced her to try to turn what was a flimsy bit of spin into something more substantial.

The Prime Minister, a Remainer, yesterday sought to reassure voters that she would strike a Brexit deal that worked for every part of the UK.

Miss Sturgeon should either have signalled her intention positively to influence that process or announced that a second independence referendum was to take place.

Instead, the First Minister kept playing her tiresome game of will-she-won’t-she?

One could be forgiven for believing that Nicola Sturgeon has no intention of calling a second referendum – but just can’t find the words to break this news to her supporters.