Will Nicola name the date for Indyref 2 in weeks?
Poll ‘next May or September’
SCOTLAND could be j ust weeks away from learning when a second divisive vote on breaking up the Union will be called, according to campaigners.
A prominent pro-independence group has begun a fundraising drive to get ‘back in full campaign mode’ with claims another referendum could be held next autumn.
This comes as a report by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) predicts that an independent Scotland could face Greek- style austerity after leaving the UK.
It warns separation could see Holyrood forced to make £19billion worth of cuts, with the deficit potentially reaching an ‘unsustainable’ 9.4 per cent of GDP by next year.
Last week Jacqueline Minor, the European Commission’s Head of Representations in the UK, said an independent Scotland would have to tackle its deficit if it wanted to rejoin the EU. Following the Brexit vote last June, Nicola Sturgeon has said a second independence referendum is ‘highly likely’ unless the UK Government offers Scotland a bespoke EU deal.
This is despite polls suggesting the majority of Scots do not want to be forced back into another bitter campaign.
But with the SNP’s spring conference only weeks away, campaigners believe an announcement on a re-run of the 2014 referendum could be imminent.
Business for Scotland, which focused on the economic case for independence, said it is getting ‘ back i n full campaign mode’ for a vote to be held sometime next year.
Group founder Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp emailed members to say ‘we are only weeks away’ from a second referendum being called. In the message he calls for their help in ‘renewing the economic case for independence’ and claims the organisation is ‘getting ready for Indyref 2 in May or September 2018’.
Almost a third of the £15,000 target has already been donated via the online fundraiser.
Claims that the country could be just weeks away from finding out the date of another vote to break up Britain come as yet more research has warned of the financial burdens an independent Scotland may face.
The CEBR’s latest report suggests that Scotland’s deficit – already growing following the collapse in North Sea oil revenues – would balloon further were it to become independent.
CEBR president Douglas McWilliams told the Sunday Times the gap between spending and tax revenues will reach 9.4 per cent of GDP next year – three times that of the UK.
But this would climb to 12 per cent following independence due to the costs of becoming a separate state.
He said: ‘The only practical option would be to cut public spending. That’s roughly on the scale of what happened in Greece, which has led to a fall in GDP in a quarter.’
Scottish Conservative finance spokesman Murdo Fraser said: ‘We’ve heard this kind of warning repeatedly since the original separation campaign of 2014.
‘If anything, they are becoming even more stark. It reaffirms again that, irrespective of Brexit, Scotland is significantly better off as part of the UK.’
A spokesman for Economy Secretary Keith Brown said: ‘For almost 15 years this organisation has been claiming Scotland is about to turn into a “Third World” economy, and we and others have continuously been pointing out the flaws in their methodology.
‘Figures show productivity is growing four times faster in Scotland than the UK.’
‘Back in full campaign mode’