An independent Scotland would have to leave EU
AN independent Scotland would have to leave the EU and apply for membership, according to a report by two academics.
Tobias Lock, of the University of Edinburgh, and Kirsty Hughes, of Friends of Europe, said that if Scotland votes to leave the UK, it could have to wait until 2024 before becoming a full member of the EU.
In the report – An Independent Scotland and the EU: What Route to Membership? – the pair say Scottish ministers would be forced to negotiate with the 27 member states to join. But they claim political goodwill could see Scotland’s bid fast-tracked.
The research has been published as Scottish Secretary David Mundell prepares to appear before MSPs at Holyrood tomorrow, where he will say Scotland will leave the EU along with the rest of the UK.
During the 2014 independence campaign, former First Minister Alex Salmond claimed an independent Scotland would be able to remain within the EU. His successor, Nicola Sturgeon, has claimed that if Scotland does vote for independence before the UK leaves the EU, it would be entitled to automatic continued membership.
But the report by Dr Lock and Dr Hughes suggests otherwise. They say an independent Scotland would be forced to leave the EU and apply to become a full member.
The report says: ‘Formal talks on Scotland joining the EU couldn’t start until it was independent, but there might be informal talks and assessments. If the EU27 were willing to move quickly, membership talks might start before the end of 2020.
‘So Scotland could be an independent member state by 2023 or 2024, if it became independent by 2020.’
The report says it is ‘unlikely’ Scotland would be given ‘special status’ as a current EU member, but suggests membership could be fast-tracked following a new mood of goodwill towards the country.
The authors write: ‘Scotland already meets almost all of the EU’s acquis – from the single market and the Common Agricultural Policy, to the Common Foreign and Security Policy and the customs union. So it already meets most of the EU’s 35 chapters that have to be negotiated for the accession process.
‘It would probably have to commit to euro membership, but would not meet the criteria, and would, like Sweden, be able to postpone this (probably indefinitely).’
Last night, Scottish Tory constitution spokesman Adam Tomkins said: ‘The argument has never been would a separate Scotland be granted membership of the EU, but on what terms.
‘Not only would it not receive the same unique terms as the UK’s membership, it could face years outside the EU before it was able to rejoin. This would have serious consequences for the economy.’
Mr Mundell is due to give evidence to the culture, tourism, Europe and external relations committee tomorrow.
He will say ‘Scotland will not be in the EU’ at the end of the Brexit process and there ‘is no set of circumstances in which Scotland could remain a member of the EU after the rest of the UK has left’.
A Scottish Government spokesman said: ‘The Scottish Government has a clear democratic mandate that the Scottish parliament should have the right to hold a referendum on independence if Scotland is taken out of the EU against our will.
‘People in Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU but instead of listening to Scotland as they promised, the UK Government now seems determined to impose a hard Brexit at any cost.’
‘Serious consequences’