Row over SNP secret report on devastating price of split
A BITTER row has broken out amid claims Nicola Sturgeon’s economic expert warned independence would set Scotland’s economy back by up to ten years.
Andrew Wilson, leader of the SNP’s Growth Commission, is believed to have said it will take a decade for Scotland to recover from leaving the UK.
The claims, published by an influential politics magazine, were made after a secret meeting of top Nationalists including Miss Sturgeon, Deputy First Minister John Swinney and Deputy Leader Angus Robertson MP.
It has been reported that the meeting discussed Mr Wilson’s report on the finances of an independent Scotland and the findings of the Growth Commission, set up to make a new case for independence.
But it is believed these have not made for easy reading for the SNP.
Both the party and Mr Wilson have denied this is their position, although have not made clear where they stand.
Last night, critics claimed the reports exposed a ‘bombshell revelation’ of the ‘devastating reality of independence’.
Reports yesterday revealed that the private meeting was held this month at the Craigellachie Hotel in Moray.
Mr Wilson, a former MSP and RBS economist, is set to publish his findings on the finances of an independent Scotland this year.
But it is claimed that at the meeting he proposed a ‘steady as she goes’ approach to see an economic recovery within five to ten years of separation.
This would put the country back to its current economic status – without drastic spending cuts or big tax rises.
Scotland has a notional national debt of £15.8billion – three times greater per head than the UK – with the collapse in North Sea oil prices almost doubling the debt.
Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson said ‘the First Minister has been caught out trying to hide the cost of independence’.
She added: ‘Her own finance guru is telling Nicola Sturgeon that her plans would inflict ten years of pain and cuts on Scotland to get us back to the point where we are now, as part of the UK.
‘That’s ten years of schools, hospitals and public services being under-funded while jobs and the economy suffer, just so the SNP leader can pursue her childwould hood dream of separation. It’s telling that – knowing this – Nicola Sturgeon has chosen to press ahead with another referendum.
‘She has ceased to act for all of Scotland and is now hell-bent on pursuing her own partisan agenda.’
Mr Wilson yesterday posted a message on Twitter denying the story.
And an SNP spokesman said: ‘This report of the Growth Commission’s work is categorically untrue. The biggest threat to Scotland’s jobs and economic growth is the Tory hard Brexit.’
The spokesman refused to say what the current party position is – or when Mr Wilson would reveal his findings. Mr Wilson also did not offer a position on a Scottish currency.
Last week he said an independent Scotland would have to treat oil revenue as ‘zero revenue’ and that it would not be ‘a bonus’ as former first minister Alex Salmond had claimed.
Last night, Scottish Labour said: ‘The Nationalists should publish the presentation by Andrew Wilson so people in Scotland can see exactly what the SNP is admitting behind closed doors about the devastating impact leaving the UK have on families in Scotland.’ Meanwhile, another report has revealed an independent Scotland faces a deficit of at least £11billion.
The Scottish Trends figures were released by leading economist John McLaren, who said Scotland’s fiscal balance position is worse since the 2014 referendum due to the ‘virtual disappearance’ of North Sea tax revenues.
The report says Scotland is likely to be running a deficit of about £11billion (6.4 per cent of GDP) by the time the UK has come close to balance in 2019-20 – a difference equivalent to about £1,700 per person.
The report states: ‘This differential is unlikely to change much under current tax and spend patterns as neither the Scottish nor the UK Governments expect North Sea revenues to return to anything like past peaks.’
Scottish Labour Westminster spokesman Ian Murray said: ‘This report from one of Scotland’s leading economists confirms that an independent Scotland would face massive public spending cuts after leaving the UK.’
Scottish Tory finance spokesman Murdo Fraser said: ‘The fiscal position is less favourable, North Sea oil is in a significantly worse way and our economy lags badly behind that of the rest of the UK.’
Mr Wilson did not respond to a request for comment last night.
‘Hell-bent on partisan agenda’