Why red skies at night ARE just as accurate as TV forecasters!
As most of us admit we rely on old wives’ tales to predict the weather ...
DUST down those pine cones, hang up the seaweed and start watching the cat.
Despite weather forecasts on TV and online that depend on the latest computer modelling, three in four of us rely on old wives’ tales to predict the weather, according to a survey for the Met Office published this week.
But does science back the folklore? DaViD DerByShire investigates . . .
Red sky at night, shepherd’s delight; red sky in the morning, shepherd’s warning
TRUE it’s one of the oldest weather proverbs — appearing in the Bible — and one of the most accurate.
a red sky appears when dust is trapped in the atmosphere by high pressure. This scatters elements of blue light in the atmosphere, leaving only red light.
The proverb holds true because prevailing winds over Britain are westerly. Most of our weather — good and bad — comes from the atlantic. if the sky is red when the sun sets, it means high pressure, bringing warmth and sunshine, is moving in from the west — so it’s likely the next day will be fine.
Conversely, the Met Office confirms a ‘red sky in the morning’ appears after the high-pressure has moved east, meaning the good weather has passed.
St Swithin’s Day, if it does rain, full 40 days, it will remain. St Swithin’s Day, if it be fair, for 40 days, t’will rain no more
FALSE St Swithin was a 9th-century monk who asked to be buried in the churchyard of the Old Minster in Winchester, so ‘the sweet rain from heaven might wet his grave’.
But a century later he was made a saint, and was moved inside the cathedral on July 15. his spirit was said to be so annoyed it rained for 40 days. But this is not backed up by statistics. Since records began in 1861, a shower on St Swithin’s Day has never been followed by 40 days of rain.
Mackerel sky and mare’s tails make tall ships carry low sails
TRUE These are two popular names for cloud formations. ‘Mackerel sky’ describes altocumulus clouds, which resemble the scales of a fish, while Mare’s Tails refer to flicky cirrus clouds.
Sailors have known since the first days of ocean voyages that both types of clouds form in advance of a storm. Their appearance usually means rain and wind is six to eight hours away.
A ring around the sun or moon means rain or snow is coming soon
TRUE ‘halos’ around the sun or moon are an optical illusion caused by light striking ice crystals high in the atmosphere. These form at the top of a weather front and their appearance high in the sky often means that wet, cold weather is on its way.
When a pine cone closes up, it’s about to rain
TRUE When the air is dry, pine cones dry and open up. if the air becomes more humid, their scales absorb moisture and they close tight. They want seeds to escape in dry conditions. if released in the rain, they are unlikely to travel far, reducing their chance of propagating. But pine cones can’t predict weather more than a few hours in advance.
When seaweed shrivels up, fine weather is on the way
PARTLY TRUE Seaweed hanging from a hook absorbs moisture from the air.
if conditions are humid, seaweed swells up and feels damp. if the air is dry, it shrivels up and feels dry But like pine cones, it’s more of a reflection of present conditions.
Rain before seven, fine by eleven
FALSE This one is based on the idea that Britain has such changeable weather that weather fronts pass quickly, bringing the promise of sunshine. But sometimes rain hangs around for days.
When swallows fly high, it will be dry
PARTLY TRUE Swallows feed on the wing and if the weather is warm, thermals — columns of warm air — carry insects hundreds of feet into the atmosphere.
The swallows follow them and fly high in pursuit of their next meal. But like many proverbs it is a ‘nowcast’ rather than a forecast.
Flies bite before a storm
JURY UNDECIDED it has long been said that flies bite when a storm is brewing, and that black flies are the worst offenders. Scientists, however, have yet to prove a definite connection.
Summer storms often come after long spells of muggy weather. When the air is humid, people tend to sweat more — making them smellier and more of a magnet for flies and biting bugs. it’s possible flies sense the drop in air pressure just before a storm and come down to the ground, where they target us.
Cows lie down when it’s about to rain
PARTLY TRUE Scientists at the University of arizona have discovered cows tend to stand up when the temperature rises and lie down when the air cools down. in the UK, a drop in temperature is sometimes associated with rain.
Three days’ rain will empty any sky
SOMETIMES TRUE in the UK’s changeable climate, conditions are rarely the same day after day. it generally holds true that while cloudy, miserable and grey weather may last for weeks, torrential rain rarely lasts more than three days.
When smoke descends, good weather ends
SOMETIMES TRUE On a windless day, smoke tends to rise straight and high into the sky, giving us the connection between rising smoke and clement weather conditions. however, if the weather is very humid, the smoke from a bonfire or chimney may curl back round and fall to the ground, indicating that a shower may be on its way. Ash before the oak, we’ll have a soak. Oak before the ash, we’ll have a splash FALSE This proverb claims that if the leaves of the ash tree come out before the oak’s in the spring, we are heading for an unusually wet summer — a full soak rather than a light splash.
This is false, since oak trees nearly always come into leaf before the ashes.
Furthermore, the weather in spring is not a good indicator of the summer that will follow.
If cats lick themselves, fair weather is on its way
FALSE Our ancestors were divided on the meteorological know-how of cats. Some proverbs suggest when cats appear subdued, they know rain is approaching. But other sayings claim the prospect of a shower makes cats frisky.
We’ve all seen enough furious soggy moggies streak through the kitchen door after being caught out in a sudden rainstorm to know that cats are as fallible as we are when it comes to predicting the weather.
Seagull, seagull leave the sand. It’s never good weather when you’re on land
PARTLY TRUE Seagulls prefer to sleep on water, but if the sea is too choppy, they move inland and huddle on the ground. So if the gulls are dozing next to the deck chairs, it can be a sign that the weather is poor out to sea.
It can be too cold to snow
TRUE When air is colder, it carries less water vapour, reducing the chances of snow falling. Once the air temperature at ground level drops below about minus 20c, snowfall becomes unlikely in most places. But then it’s unusual that Britain would experience such temperatures.