Poll woe for SNP as voters abandon the party
Sturgeon on course to lose her pro-Indy majority
NICOLA Sturgeon’s bid to ‘refresh’ her government with a raft of new policies has failed to halt a slump in support for the SNP, with a poll revealing voters are deserting the party in droves.
More than 250,000 people who voted SNP last year no longer intend to back it at the next Holyrood election, an exclusive poll for the Scottish Daily Mail shows.
The figures indicate that the SNP is now on track to see its constituency and regional list votes plummet when Scots next go to the polls.
The loss of support suggests that there may not be a proindependence majority in the next term of parliament – meaning the prospect of another separation vote looks ‘dead in the water’ for at least a decade.
Opposition parties say the poll shows that Scots are ‘not buying’ Miss Sturgeon’s desperate bid to relaunch her government and think that she remains obsessed with her bid to break up Britain.
The Survation poll of 1,016 Scots – the first to be carried out since the First Minister
published her new programme for government last week – reveals:
Support for the SNP has slumped by 4.5 percentage points on the constituency vote and 11 per cent on the regional list vote since last year’s Holyrood elections.
Polling projections based on the figures indicate that the SNP would lose nine of its 63 seats in the Scottish parliament, while the Scottish Greens would win eight – meaning the pro-independence majority would be lost
Support for Scottish Labour and the Scottish Liberal Democrats has soared since last year’s election
There has been no increase in support for independence, with 54 per cent of Scots saying they would vote No again in any future referendum.
The slide in backing for the SNP comes after the party saw its support collapse amid an antiindependence backlash in June’s general election, which saw the Nationalists lose 500,000 votes and 21 of their Westminster seats.
Miss Sturgeon had said that her programme for government was an attempt to ‘refresh’ her administration after a decade in charge, amid mounting concerns about failures in the health service, education, justice system and the economy.
A Scottish Conservative spokesman said: ‘This poll shows the shine has come off the SNP – and it demonstrates that its attempt to impose a second referendum on Scotland is now dead in the water.
‘As Scotland’s main opposition party, we are determined to build on the support we’ve won over the last year and put the divisions of the last few years behind us.’ The new poll, carried out by Survation between September 812, indicates that support for the SNP in the constituency vote now stands at 42 per cent, down 4.5 percentage points compared to last year’s Scottish parliament elections.
There was a much bigger decline in the regional list vote – with only 31 per cent of respondents intending to vote SNP, compared to 42 per cent last year. The decline is equivalent to the loss of more than 250,000 votes.
The figures appeared to indicate a strong shift away from the SNP
‘Obsessed with the constitution’
towards Scottish Labour and the Scottish Liberal Democrats.
Scottish Labour’s vote has started to recover despite no longer having a leader in the wake of Kezia Dugdale’s shock resignation last month.
Its share of the constituency vote is up by two percentage points at 25 per cent, while the regional vote is up six percentage points at 25 per cent.
The Liberal Democrats have seen their vote share double on the regional list, to 10 per cent, while the constituency vote stands at seven per cent.
The Scottish Conservatives are up four percentage points at 26 per cent in the constituencies and down two percentage points on the regional list, at 21 per cent.
Projections of seat numbers, based on the voting intention figures, indicate that the SNP would win 54 seats, Labour 30, Conservatives 24, Lib Dems 13 and the Greens eight.
It would mean that the SNP and Greens would have 62 seats between them – meaning they would fall three short of a proindependence majority.
With the UK Conservative Government ruling out another referendum before there is clear ‘public or political’ consent for one to take place, failing to win a proindependence majority would effectively kill off the issue until at least 2026.
The Survation poll shows that the SNP has not secured the bounce in support it hoped for following the Brexit vote, with 54 per cent of voters still intending to vote No if there is another referendum and 46 per cent saying they would vote Yes.
Scottish Labour business manager James Kelly said: ‘These are encouraging figures for Scottish Labour which show we are continuing to build on our good results in the general election.
‘They also show that voters simply are not buying Nicola Sturgeon’s relaunch since the programme for government.
‘It is clear that the Scottish people still think the SNP is obsessed with the constitution and are not convinced Nicola Sturgeon will put jobs, schools and hospitals before the case for another referendum.
‘These figures should also be a worry for Ruth Davidson.
‘It appears lots of Scots are starting to see through her onetrick pony act.’
A Scottish Liberal Democrat spokesman said: ‘This poll shows the power that momentum has in modern day politics.
‘The SNP lost all their momentum in June while Liberal Democrats grew stronger.
‘We continue to grow across Scotland. Despite a feeble attempt to refresh their government last week, the SNP miss the big challenges on education and health. The SNP are a government running out of ideas and now running on borrowed time.’
SNP business convener Derek Mackay said: ‘This poll shows that the Tory bubble has burst, with the party falling into third place as their handling of Brexit goes from bad to worse.
‘Although we are a long way from another election, it’s hugely welcome that after ten years in government the SNP is recording double-digit poll leads.’ Comment – Page 14