VANISHING VOTERS WHO FORCED DRAMATIC RETHINK ON INDYREF2 PLANS

SINCE Scots voted No on September 18, 2014, the SNP has been plotting how and when it could bring about a rerun. Here, Scottish Political Editor MICHAEL BLACKLEY looks at how Nicola Sturgeon’s position has changed.

JUNE 2016: The morning of the Brexit referendum result: Britain voted to Leave despite a majority of Scots backing Remain. Within hours, Nicola Sturgeon announced that a second independence referendum was now ‘highly likely’ before Britain formally leaves the EU.

ANALYSIS: A move designed to capitalise on perceived anger among Scots at the result. The referendum allowed the SNP to argue for independence on the claim that Scotland’s voice was being ignored. But there was no upturn in support for independence and SNP sources indicate Miss Sturgeon may have been hasty in mentioning it so soon.

OCTOBER 2016: Miss Sturgeon used her SNP conference speech to guarantee there would be a second independence referendum. She said: ‘Scotland must have the ability to choose a better future – and I will make sure that Scotland gets that chance.’

ANALYSIS: The First Minister wanted to assure her supporters that there would be another independence referendum post Brexit. She didn’t want to be drawn on timing – she wanted to see evidence support for separation was growing – and the polls weren’t showing that.

MARCH 2017: The First Minister announced she would call a vote on a second referendum in the Scottish parliament, to be held between Autumn 2018 and Spring 2019.

ANALYSIS: Miss Sturgeon needed to act quickly if she was to claim independence was the only way of keeping Scotland in the EU. What she didn’t bank on was that, within days, Theresa May would reject her demand – and the Prime Minister’s decision would prove so popular it boosted Tory support in Scotland.

JUNE 2017: Following the snap general election announcement, the SNP lost 500,000 votes and 21 MPs. Miss Sturgeon admitted indeAsked

pendence was a factor and pledged to ‘reflect’ on it but refused to ditch a referendum.

ANALYSIS: Miss Sturgeon knew her referendum demand was unpopular with most Scots. She had to reassess but, unlike after the EU referendum result, didn’t want to make rash decisions.

JUNE 2017: Three weeks after the election, Miss Sturgeon told MSPs she would ‘reset’ her timetable but refused to ditch the threat of a referendum, which would be at the end of the Brexit process.

ANALYSIS: The move was an attempt to take away the imminent threat of another vote and instead give the impression that she was putting all her effort into securing a good Brexit deal. However, she was just doing the groundwork for making the inevitable claim at the end of Brexit that her views were ignored, the deal wasn’t acceptable and there must be another independence referendum.

SEPTEMBER 2017: Miss Sturgeon admitted for the first time that she now has no idea when there will be another independence referendum. She said she would decide at the end of the Brexit process ‘whether we want to do it and in what timescale’.

ANALYSIS: Opponents said the SNP has finally accepted ‘the dream is over’. In reality, it is almost inevitable Miss Sturgeon will conclude in 2019 that there should be a referendum. But it now looks unlikely it will happen before the 2021 Holyrood election. With the SNP haemorrhaging support and likely to lose its pro-independence majority, a rerun of 2014 may never happen.