I’m going for a Warriors win to set up derby decider
Glasgow will be in the right state of mind this time
THERE is no doubt that the Christmas Day turkey will have tasted better at the east end of the M8 after that incredible win for Edinburgh over Glasgow last week.
Warriors head coach Dave Rennie will have thought: ‘How did we lose that?’ — and Richard Cockerill will have asked: ‘How did we win that?’
The answer to both questions is the same. Mentally, Edinburgh are stronger than Glasgow. How else can you explain a team losing when they score in the first few minutes and then see an opposition player sent off with only five minutes on the clock?
Throw in the fact that it is difficult enough to defend on an international-size pitch when you have 15 men on the field, and it made no sense that Cockerill’s team went on to win the game.
Glasgow seem to switch off mentally when they play Edinburgh. I’ve noticed this over the last few years and it partly explains how the capital side have won five of the last six games between the sides.
Derbies in any sport will always throw up anomalies when the passion and desire of the so-called lesser team can push them to a victory. But these are normally one-offs.
In the last six meetings, Glasgow have come into the match by far the better team in every measurement; higher in the league, more current international and star players.
Yet Edinburgh have prevailed. If it’s not a physical thing, then it must be a psychological one — and Edinburgh definitely have the edge in this department.
It’s not a complacency born out of arrogance from the Warriors. Jonny Gray won’t have said in the changing room before the game: ‘It’s only Edinburgh’.
Glasgow’s players are very honest, driven and humble young men. They give their all for the jersey and the club. There is also a real connection with the fans, which creates a good, intimidating atmosphere at Scotstoun.
In their two recent European defeats at home, the problem was physical not mental. They were outplayed but mainly overpowered by very strong teams in Leinster and Montpellier. They had chances to win both games but were not quite good enough.
When they play Edinburgh, however, it seems they drop their focus a little bit, enough to allow their rivals to close the gap in quality.
If you’re not mentally right — and it could be a case that their focus drops by ten per cent — then this can mean that the physical side of the game has a greater impact.
In a match that is all about power and physicality, Glasgow need to ensure they are properly attuned at Scotstoun today.
Some of the best coaches I worked with — Sir Ian McGeechan, Brian Ashton — were very strong on being mentally right for every game.
They believed it was the top three inches in the head that were the most important part of a player, not his size or speed.
It is easy to get yourself in tune for playing New Zealand at Murrayfield or Leicester in a cup final at Twickenham, but they challenged us to be right mentally every time we played.
Some coaches used psychology to motivate players by talking up their opposition player.
This worked with some but not with others, which means that good coaching is required, and I’m sure Rennie will have tried everything this week to ensure his players are mentally in the right place today.
I expect to see a reaction from the Glasgow players. They should be desperate to get out on the pitch and right the wrongs of last week.
Finn Russell has been brought back into the starting XV to pull the strings and he’ll try to get them playing at pace, which is when they are at their best.
Edinburgh will attempt to stop them getting quick ball and, if they succeed, they’ll know they can win the game and the 1872 Cup.
I went for an Edinburgh win last week because I had my suspicions about Glasgow’s mental state.
But I think Rennie’s words will have sunk in, so I’m going for a Glasgow victory to set up a decider in April.