Sturgeon’s £2,300 per person Brexit ‘scare’
‘Essential to minimise the damage’
NICOLA Sturgeon has been accused of ‘scaremongering’ after a report suggesting a hard Brexit would cost every Scot £2,300.
The SNP leader’s opponents said she was willing Britain’s deal with the EU to fail in order to boost her own ‘constitutional obsessions’.
As she launched the ‘Scotland’s Place In Europe’ report in Edinburgh yesterday, the First Minister also claimed a slump in immigration could spark an economic crisis.
The Scottish Government report says Scotland’s economy will shrink by 8.5 per cent by 2030 if Britain fails to secure an exit deal with the EU, compared with full EU membership. That is equivalent to a £12.7billion decline, or £2,300 per person.
It concludes that ‘Scotland’s future economic, environmental and social prospects will best be served as a member of the European Union as an independent state’. Opponents said the 56-page paper failed to acknowledge that the rest of the UK was Scotland’s biggest trading partner.
The report also claimed that ‘real disposable income’ would be 9.6 per cent lower without an EU deal, while business investment would be 10.2 per cent down.
Miss Sturgeon said: ‘What the modelling in this paper that we are publishing shows, beyond any doubt, is that if the economy, living standards and investment are our priorities, staying within the single market is absolutely essential to minimise the damage of leaving the EU.’
On Sunday, Miss Sturgeon confirmed that she would announce later this year whether she plans to push for a second independence referendum.
She repeatedly refused to comment further on the issue yesterday.
Scottish Conservative constitution spokesman Adam Tomkins said: ‘No one’s doubting that Brexit will pose challenges, but it will bring opportunities, too.
‘That’s why it’s vital the SNP works with the UK Government to achieve the best Brexit deal, and not will the process to fail in the hope of furthering its own constitutional obsessions.’
Party leader Ruth Davidson added: ‘When she says Brexit, people hear the word independence.’
The ‘no deal’ impact was one of three scenarios analysed in the report. If a ‘Canada-style’ free trade agreement was struck with the EU, GDP would fall by 6.1 per cent to £9billion lower, or £1,600 per person.
Staying in the single market, but not as full EU members, would reduce GDP by 2.7 per cent, worth £4billion or almost £700 per head.
The research included figures showing that EU migrants contribute an average of £34,400 each towards GDP every year and contribute £10,400 per year towards government revenue.
Miss Sturgeon said: ‘In the period to 2041, all our projected population growth will come from inward migration. Without that, our population could go into decline and with it our ability to grow our economy and fund our public services.’
Scottish Secretary David Mundell said: ‘These figures fail to acknowledge that we need to avoid anything that might fracture the vital UK internal market, worth around £48billion to the Scottish economy – or four times more than trade with the EU.’
Scottish Lib Dem leader Willie Rennie said: ‘The SNP need to drop the threat of an independence referendum, which is mentioned in the paper but without any attempt to quantify the costs of dismantling the UK single market.’