NEXT STOP No10?
In the final part of our compelling series, how Ruth Davidson’s fierce intellect may propel her to the very top
THIS isn’t the Boris show,’ Ruth Davidson declared, in front of 12,000 voters at the BBC’s Brexit debate on 22 June 2016. She was not wrong. The Wembley Arena debate cemented Ruth as a national political figure and a force within the Conservative Party.
Alongside newly elected London Mayor Sadiq Khan, Ruth made the passionate case for Remain and was deeply combative towards the opposite numbers from her own party in a brutal denunciation of the Leave campaign that won her plaudits far and wide.
The anger in her voice, which resonated around Wembley and beyond, had echoes of the 2014 independence campaign.
But after the referendum vote, which saw Leave win and David Cameron resign, things were different. Having savaged Boris Johnson and Andrea Leadsom in the Wembley debate, the prospect of either becoming Tory leader – and with it Prime Minister – was bad news for Ruth.
Indeed, it was even suggested that, such was the animosity between the Scottish Tory leader and the former Mayor of London that she was even contemplating breaking up the Tory Party if he won the race to succeed Cameron.
The damage that might be caused by Johnson, who is deeply unpopular among much of the Scottish population, as premier was considered too much to bear.
Personal allegiances regularly ebb and flow in politics – Ruth is not unique in this. But she is often seemingly willing to take radical – indeed, entirely contradictory – if circumstances change. In this case, the proposal to split the party never came to fruition. It was quickly consigned to the dustbin, along with Johnson’s leadership hopes.
Ruth herself, now desperately short of allies, also sought to patch things up with Johnson. The pair met for a drink in Westminster, with a source describing them afterwards as ‘very good friends’.
This, while representing good public relations for Johnson, was questionable. Fiercely loyal, it is unlikely Ruth would privately quickly forgive the former London Mayor for his perceived betrayal of Cameron over the EU referendum.
In public, however, she was as anxious as Johnson for any perceived difficulty to be patched up.
When Leadsom withdrew, it was clear Ruth’s political instincts, at least second time round, were correct. May was now Prime Minister – and Ruth had backed her at just the right time.
A Scottish Tory source even suggested the new Westminster leader was considering trying to crowbar Ruth into her Cabinet as Scottish Secretary.
The job, which was eventually held by incumbent David Mundell, would have been difficult, if not impossible, to conduct while Ruth remained an MSP.
She would also have been reluctant to take on the additional work, given her enhanced role in Holyrood and the resurgence of Nationalist sentiment in Scotland.
Yet it is a testament to how quickly she had established herself with May that such things were even being discussed.
Certainly, despite the furore of those choppy weeks, Ruth was still confident enough to be able to poke fun at her opponents.
After May’s election – or rather appointment – the Scottish Tory leader held a lunch in Westminster where, in typical good humour, she dissected recent events. To laughs, she said she was delighted to still be in office when everyone else was ‘resigning, getting knifed, bottling it, withdrawing, failing, declaring or falling on their sword’.
Referencing the ongoing challenge to Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour leadership that emerged after the EU referendum, she continued: ‘That’s the difference between our two parties: Labour is still fumbling with its flies while the Tories are enjoying their post-coital cigarette. After withdrawing our massive Johnson,’ she added, to more laughs.
Her national influence was never more pronounced then on the night of June 9, 2017, when the results of the snap general election trickled in, and it became increasingly clear that Ruth had not just stalled the Tory decline in Scotland, but reversed it.
For the Tories as a whole across the UK, it was a night of contrasts – and it is easy to compare Ruth’s night with that of Theresa May. The Prime Minister endured one of the most humiliating of political humblings in history. Her snap election gamble had categorically failed. In contrast to Ruth’s heroics, May had not only failed to expand her majority but lost it altogether.
In terms of image, the contrasting fortunes of the Tory leaders north and south of the Border could not be starker. The young, energetic Ruth romped home, while the ageing, nervous May achieved nothing but disaster.
The Scottish Conservatives’ victory radically changed the dynamic of the relationship between it and its UK counterpart.
The 13 candidates elected in Scotland were very much Ruth’s people – they owe their candidacy, position and indeed election to her, not May. They won their seats because of Ruth and, arguably, in spite of May.
Ruth, therefore, now has considerable political muscle in Westminster, as well as at Holyrood. On its own, 13
Fiercely loyal, it’s unlikely she would forgive betrayal
MPs loyal to Ruth is noteworthy but not hugely significant.
But May would have lost the election without Ruth’s MPs.
While she enjoyed some influence under Cameron and Osborne, under May she now has tangible political power. RUTH’S star has risen at an even greater pace than her party’s. Despite her rocky start, the consensus is that she is a formidable leader with a bright political future ahead – if she wants it.
She has achieved what no other leader of the Conservatives has managed for decades – taking the party out of the doldrums at Holyrood and regaining them a Scottish foothold in Westminster. But she has also boosted the Tory brand. Although she was first elected in only 2011, she is already being mentioned as a potential Conservative Cabinet minister – or Prime Minister. The question now for Ruth is whether she has achieved all she can with the Scottish Conservatives. And what, if any, future would she have outside of devolved politics? With such success behind – and, seemingly ahead – of her, it is understandable that many are anxious that she take on a greater role in the UK party. But Ruth does not want to head to Westminster – not yet, anyway.
One friend said Ruth remarked that she ‘can’t wait to get out of Holyrood’ – but such an overly frank statement should be treated with caution.
Ruth knows herself that her work with the Scottish Conservatives is not finished.
If Ruth were to desert the party, it would be a major loss. Even hypothetically, there is no clear successor who could take her place. Many of her MSPs are new to Holyrood – although so was she – while the relationship between the new and those who are more experienced is often tense. Even if the party could drum up someone, it is highly unlikely they would be as popular or successful.
There is also the issue of a Westminster seat, namely that there is not one. It would be unpalatable for Ruth to jump ship to a safe seat in England, despite the hopes of some.
When David Cameron resigned, bookmakers were instantly taking bets – often on short odds – that Ruth would succeed him in Witney. Dramatic though it would have been, it was never going to happen.
Of course, all of this is not to suggest that Ruth is not hugely popular – or welcome – in the Westminster bubble.
Ruth, as her post-Brexit speech showed, is something of a darling of the House of Commons lobby reporters, many of whom view her as a refreshing and unusual Tory.
The Scottish Conservative leader has helped build this brand to ingratiate herself beyond the normal realms of Holyrood politicians.
Her performances on the hit BBC show Have I Got News For You – as well as Celebrity Bake Off – are a good example of this strategy. She has used such high-profile performances to reinforce her image as a funny, self-effacing Conservative.
She has also expressed a desire to appear on Strictly Come Dancing. ‘I tell you something: if the BBC came asking, I would be there in a heartbeat, I would be spangled, I would make sure that I am spray-tanned, the frock, the heels, everything, I would love it.’
Such comments are an absolute delight to journalists across the country – but particularly at Westminster. They have not only helped Ruth cultivate an image as a ‘normal’ person but have also reinforced the sense that she is a different type of politician. A politician, in short, who is fun, gregarious and who people want to be around.
While this might not be an overt attempt to lay the groundwork for a move to Westminster, it has done nothing to dampen speculation – perhaps hopeful speculation – that she may one day make the move south. Ruth has shown throughout her career that she is ready to jettison commitments when they no longer serve their purpose. But to abandon the Scottish Conservatives, with the momentum in their favour, while that was the stated objective would only leave the impression that she viewed making the Tories a party of government in Scotland impossible.
While Ruth would never desert a campaign to save the Union, there is her personal life to consider. Now engaged to be married, and having just announced she is pregnant with her first child, expected in October, there is certainly a part of Ruth that values the quiet life, away from the public eye.
The Scottish Tory leader plans to take a few months off for maternity leave before returning to the Scottish parliament in spring 2019, telling reporters: ‘You can have a family and combine that with a career, and I don’t think we should ever send a message to women that they can’t have both.’
Yet her family life may influence her decisions on the kind of political career she chooses to pursue – in Holyrood or Westminster, in the limelight or on the back benches.
There is a precedent, too, for Ruth resigning the Scottish Tory leadership. No previous incumbent has lasted more than around six years in the post.
Ruth has already done five years and, by historical precedent, should not have long left.
It remains highly likely, however, that Ruth will lead the Scottish Conservatives into the beginning of the next decade and its elections.
In that role she will be, more likely than not, called upon to lead the campaign in favour of the Union. And she will also be tasked with convincing the public that her party – once the pariahs of Scottish politics – can now be a party of government.
Neither of these tasks will be easy, but Ruth likes a challenge. Her qualities of leadership and determination have served her well in the past. There is no reason to think they will not do so in the future.
Adapted from Ruth Davidson and the Resurgence of the Scottish Tories by Andrew Liddle, published by Biteback on May 24, £18.99. © Andrew Liddle 2018. To order a copy for £9.74 (offer valid to May 28), visit www.mailshop. co.uk/books or call 0844 571 0640. P&P free on orders over £15.
She’s a different type of politician, fun and popular