‘Doomsday Brexit’ is dismissed as hysteria

WHITEHALL warnings that a no-deal Brexit could see Scottish supermarkets run out of food in days were last night described as ‘hysterical’.

A leaked Whitehall assessment predicted a ‘Doomsday Brexit’ if the UK tried to leave the EU without a deal next year.

A source familiar with the work told the Sunday Times that the port of Dover would ‘collapse on day one’, adding: ‘The supermarkets in Cornwall and Scotland will run out of food in a couple of days, and hospitals will run out of medicines within two weeks.’

The source said there was nothing the UK could do if France or other EU countries decided to impose draconian restrictions at the border in the event of a no-deal departure.

‘If, for whatever reason, Europe decides to slow down (the supply of goods), then we’re screwed,’ the source said.

The analysis looked at three scenarios – mild, severe and one dubbed ‘armageddon’.

But the Department for Exiting the EU, whose officials are said to have

drawn up the analysis, last night disowned the warning.

A senior source at the department described the claims as ‘hysterical’, adding: ‘We have wide-ranging plans for contingencies and we are confident the events described are implausible.’

Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg said there was no reason why a no-deal Brexit should cause shortages unless the UK decided to impose onerous border controls.

He added: ‘We would be free to import food, medicines, fuel etc as we wished and the EU could only stop this if it were to impose sanctions which is not a credible thought. Except in limited fields, such as arms sales, an exporting nation, in the absence of sanctions, has no legal mechanism to obstruct trade. Hence the Whitehall document is project fear on speed.’

Former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith said some officials appeared to be ‘frozen in the headlights’, adding: ‘They should be planning for what happens if there is no deal, not scaring the pants off each other. We need people with imagination and courage, not frightened rabbits.’

Fellow Tory Conor Burns said: ‘Do the authors of these reports realise how supine and pathetic they make our country look to the rest of the world? The groupthink of the last 45 years makes too many incapable of seeing that the EU is not the cause of all good.’

Home Secretary Sajid Javid said he did not recognise the ‘doomsday’ scenarios – and said he remained confident the UK would get a good deal.

He told the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show: ‘I have to say I don’t recognise any bit of that at all and as Home Secretary I am deeply involved in “no deal preparations” as much as I am in getting a deal – I’m confident we will get a deal.

‘From the work that I have seen and the analysis that has been done, those outcomes... I don’t think any of them would come to pass.’

Meanwhile, DUP leader Arlene Foster yesterday gave her clearest warning yet that she would withdraw support from Mrs May’s minority government if ministers tried to push through a Brexit deal that left Northern Ireland with a different status to the rest of the UK.

Last week it emerged that ministers have considered proposals to give Northern Ireland a ‘special status’ where both EU and UK regulations on goods would operate side by side.

Mrs Foster told Sky News that the issue was a ‘red line’ for her party.

‘For us, our only red line is that we are not treated any different from the rest of the United Kingdom, that there are no trade barriers put up between Northern Ireland and our biggest market which, of course, is Great Britain,’ she said.

‘That’s what we will judge all of the propositions that are brought forward, we will judge it against that red line and she (Mrs May) is very much aware of that, and I have confidence that she knows that she cannot bring forward anything that will breach that red line or we simply will not be able to support them.’

Mrs Foster’s comments suggest the DUP would not object if the UK as a whole decided to stay in the customs union or aligned with EU regulations.

‘Document is project fear on speed’ ‘Frozen in the headlights’

ANOTHER absurdly apocalyptic Brexit forecast emerges from Whitehall. This time it is a nightmarish fantasy of what could happen if we leave the European Union without a customs deal.

Critical shortages of fuel and medicines... Scottish supermarket shelves first to be stripped of food... the collapse of the port at Dover and the military being drafted in to distribute supplies to hungry multitudes.

The Brexit department, which commissioned the study, said the idea that such a scenario could happen was ‘completely false’.

But in the absence of an aggressive counter-message from Downing Street, this kind of thing is being seized on as proof that leaving the EU will be a disaster.

So shouldn’t Theresa May be out preaching the virtues of regaining control and becoming an independent trading nation once more?

She needs to channel the same strength and resolve she showed in facing down Russia after the Salisbury nerve agent attack and go on the offensive.

She must set out her detailed blueprint for our post-Brexit future and start preparing seriously for the prospect of no deal.

Chief Brussels negotiator Michel Barnier says Britain is living in a ‘fantasy world’ to believe we can have frictionless trade without being in the customs union.

He also insists the whole of the EU is united behind him. This is a gross perversion of the truth. From Italy to Slovenia, Greece to Hungary, Eurosceptic parties are on the march.

Many have sympathy with Britain’s position and it may not be long before we are joined in the exit queue.