A GAMBLE THAT THE PM MIGHT JUST WIN

Britain may be on the brink of the greatest political and constitutional crisis in my lifetime. the Brexit train, which has seemed stuck at the platform for so many months, is now lurching forward at full speed. Some say it is lurching out of control.

Yesterday theresa May struck her Brexit deal. that in itself is a huge achievement for a prime minister who’s repeatedly been written off as doomed, weak and useless.

it is, predictably, being criticised by Brexiteering tory MPs, but i wonder how many of them have the faintest idea of the detail contained in the 400-500 page document.

For many, though, it’s not the detail but this key point: that Britain will effectively remain – for the time being at least – part of a European customs union.

this is what Mrs May has wanted all along. She has been shaken by warnings from British industry that exports to Europe would grind to a chaotic halt if we stayed outside. But securing temporary membership of the customs union carries a cost.

it means the UK will not have the ability to strike independent deals with non-EU countries. and that horrifies Brexiteers. nor can they stomach the idea that we will have to continue writing multi-billion-pound cheques to Europe.

and they absolutely recoil at the thought that we will be subject to EU rules and regulations – and the European Court of Justice.

Similarly, remainers – such as former transport minister Jo Johnson, who quit on Friday – are bridling at a deal which gives us no say in making the European laws we will be forced to obey after crashing out of the EU on March 29.

Mrs May now faces the mammoth battle of pushing her deal through Parliament at a time when tories are saying the mood within the parliamentary party and the grass roots is hostile. Boris Johnson, of course, is against it. So are many other ex-Cabinet ministers, such as iain Duncan Smith and Owen Paterson.

Crucially, the Democratic Unionists – upon whose backing the May Government depends for a Commons majority – are beside themselves with fury.

in a menacing development for Mrs May, a livid nigel Dodds declared: ‘Our laws will be made in Brussels – not in Westminster or Belfast. that is the fundamental red line.’

as for Jeremy Corbyn’s labour Party, it has pledged to vote against Mrs May and wants a general election. it may get it.

Mrs May always knew her Brexit deal was a gamble, but it was a gamble she had to take. the question is whether it will turn into a mutiny that destroys her premiership.

that is why last night she invited Cabinet ministers, one by one, into Downing Street in order to persuade them to back her deal ahead of a Cabinet meeting tomorrow. She figured that she has a better chance of persuading them individually.

it was a sensible precaution – although i was reminded of one cold, november night back in 1990 when Margaret thatcher chose to meet her Cabinet individually on the eve of her political destruction.

We may well see more resignations this week, even today. How many and how senior?

Well, the leader of the House, andrea leadsom, is strongly tipped to go, but that would not matter that much on its own. But the departure of Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, or Environment Secretary Michael Gove, would be fatal and would usher in a period of political instability of a kind we have not seen for more than half a century.

But all is not lost for the Prime Minister. if – and i accept it’s a big if – she manages to persuade the Cabinet to back her, then i believe her position is considerably stronger than it looks, because she has time on her side.

HEr Brexit deal won’t be agreed with Europe until a summit at the end of this month. a Commons vote won’t take place until December, which is more than enough time for tory whips to get to work.

Hardline Brexiteers, who last night were broadcasting horrified determination to vote against the Government, may think again once they reflect that the alternative is Jeremy Corbyn in no 10. Meanwhile, loyal ministers have four weeks to make their case.

theresa May has come through a lot. Yes, her biggest test awaits, but we shouldn’t write her off yet. She got her deal, and she’s got at least a fighting chance of winning the day in Parliament.