Where next on the road to March 29?

EU Council President Donald Tusk is expected to declare ‘decisive progress’ and call a summit at which EU leaders would sign off the deal – probably on November 25.

Negotiators will flesh out details of the ‘future framework’ outlining security and trade relationships to begin at some point after 2021.

At the EU council, Mrs May and the other EU leaders will sign off on both texts. Then comes the crunch: Parliament.

No dates are set aside for a debate, but officials expect seven days will be in early December.

The deal must be signed off by MEPs in the European Parliament, but this is likely to be a formality.

If both sides agree, the UK leaves the EU at 11pm on March 29 next year. This will be followed by a ‘transition period’ lasting at least until December 2020.

After this there are three options – continued transition, a permanent trade deal, or the UK reverts to the so-called backstop – a customs union with the EU.

If Parliament rejects the deal then there are several possible outcomes including a vote of no confidence against Mrs May.

No deal: the UK leaves without an agreement. The extent of the chaos would depend on whether a series of minor deals could be agreed on ports and airports, particularly Dover/Calais, and financial services.

A second referendum: Mrs May has insisted there will be no ‘People’s Vote’. It is not clear how – without a change of government – one could occur, although proRemain MPs will push hard.

General election: Labour would demand a poll if the deal fails. This requires two thirds of MPs to vote for Parliament to be dissolved.

Extend Article 50: The PM could request our departure date is pushed back. This would require approval from other EU states.