A short delay would not be a disaster
AS Brexit’s defining week begins, spare a sympathetic thought for our beleaguered Prime Minister as she strains every sinew to push her EU withdrawal deal through the Commons.
On all sides she is assailed by cynics, wreckers and tawdry attention-seekers – not least within her own party.
Diehard Brexiteers clamour for a different, purer form of Brexit deal that simply doesn’t exist. Conservative Remainers seek to flout democracy and dismiss the referendum result as little more than a bad dream.
Most unedifying has been the increasingly brazen manoeuvring of senior Tories vying for Mrs May’s job. Ex-Cabinet ministers Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab and Esther McVey all confirmed their interest in being the next party leader yesterday – and to that list could probably be added at least half a dozen others.
But even if there were a vacancy, would any of them do a better job? The public – and Tory voters in particular – certainly don’t think so.
One poll last Friday showed that a remarkable two-thirds of Conservative supporters thought Mrs May was doing a good job. Another yesterday had Mrs May streets ahead of any of the pretenders in terms of approval ratings.
(And significantly, despite all her travails she remains a comfortable seven points ahead of Mr Corbyn.)
However, there is no point underestimating the task she has before her. It is positively Herculean.
With Labour, the SNP (no surprise Nicola Sturgeon is trying to use Brexit as a Trojan Horse for independence) and the Democratic Unionists ranged against Mrs May – as well as the rebels in her own party – the Parliamentary arithmetic looks bleak.
So she now has a decision to make. Should she proceed with the vote, or postpone it pending a return to Brussels to negotiate further legal reassurances that the Irish backstop would be time-limited?
Having come this far, another short delay would hardly be a calamity and she would have the opportunity to focus minds within the European Commission on exactly what’s at stake here.
Further intransigence would hugely increase the chances of a no-deal outcome. And while unquestionably bad for the UK, that would be just as bad for the EU – possibly worse. (Ironically, the country with most to lose is the Republic of Ireland, more than 40 per cent of whose agricultural exports are to Britain.)
European Council president Donald Tusk, Michel Barnier and the rest must stop posturing and wake up to reality. There are just a few days left to avert disaster and salvage an orderly Brexit.
Tory rebels, too, must be careful what they wish for in undermining their leader and possibly forcing her from office. The unintended consequences could be grave.
As one commentator put it yesterday: It could be Corbyn for Christmas.