Lyme cases ‘could hit 8,000 this year’

CASES of Lyme disease in the UK have increased rapidly, with more than one in four infections in Scotland.

Official figures put UK incidents at between 2,000 and 3,000 a year – but researchers believe they may be three times higher.

Academics from Oxford and Germany have calculated the true figure is closer to 8,000 a year.

Lyme disease is a bacterial infection passed on through tick bites.

It causes rashes, flu-like symptoms and intense fatigue – and in the worst cases is linked to severe conditions such as meningitis or heart failure.

The research team, writing in the BMJ Open journal, studied GP records for 8.4million people from across the UK between 2001 and 2012 – about 8 per cent of the population. Some 4,083 cases of Lyme disease were detected.

Of all the regions, Scotland had the highest number of cases, with 1,104, or 27 per cent.

The next highest region was South-Central England with 735 cases and South-West England with 636. All areas of the UK were affected.

The high number of cases in Scotland may be due to the wetter climate and popularity as a hiking destination.

The annual number increased almost ten-fold over the period, from 60 to 595.

The researchers said if the numbers were representative of the UK as a whole, it would suggest 7,738 cases a year in 2012.

If cases continued to increase at a similar rate, they say the UK can expect more than 8,000 this year.

Lyme disease has become the most common tick-borne infection in many parts of Europe and the US. High rates in other countries had prompted fears the current UK estimate was too low. Experts say prevention is the best way to ward off the disease, urging people to avoid dense vegetation, tuck their trousers into their socks and use tick repellents.

Study author Dr Victoria Cairns, a retired medical statistician from Oxford, said: ‘This is really just showing there are many more cases than previously, officially estimated.

‘I think GPs certainly know about it. The issue is really for the public to know so that they go to the GP to get diagnosed.

‘That’s really the big problem with Lyme disease – some people don’t get diagnosed quickly enough and then they go on to get long-term problems.’

The authors said it was the first study of its kind to look at incidences of Lyme disease over time based on primary care data.

But Professor Sally Cutler of the University of East London said the inclusion of patients only ‘suspected’ to have Lyme disease, rather than a firm diagnosis, meant numbers in the study are likely to be an overestimation.