It has to be England if they can handle being favourites
Final is being staged in the perfect place for players to switch off
SO, after 47 matches in this Rugby World Cup that has been staged quite brilliantly by Japan, we come down to the final game between two of the game’s powerhouses, England and South Africa.
Both countries have known what it feels like to be world champions, England in 2003 and South Africa in 1995 and 2007. Crucially, none of the current players know what it feels like, which makes this game even more interesting.
On paper and on form, there is only one winner and that is Eddie Jones’ men. They were outstanding in their dismantling of New Zealand, just a week after doing exactly the same to Australia.
They’re on fire and red-hot favourites for this match. If they replicate the intensity and accuracy of last Saturday’s encounter, they will win this by 20 points. But the question is; can they replicate that performance when they are expected to win?
England’s mind coach will have been busy this week. The rugby coaches will have had their feet up, metaphorically speaking, because their job is done. Their players aren’t going to suddenly improve as players in the week of the World Cup final; in fact they’ll have done very little training on the pitch. It will be off the pitch that things will matter.
International rugby at the very top is as much about the mental as it is the physical. Getting the right mindset is crucial for any game, but getting it right for the biggest match of these players’ lives is of paramount importance because of all the distractions they’ll be facing.
All the messages from family and friends are great but all that does is increase the magnitude of the occasion and increases the anxiety that could be felt if not addressed appropriately.
The final is being staged in the perfect place for the players to try to switch off. Although there are a lot of English fans in Tokyo, it’s such a huge city that Owen
Farrell could get on the metro for two stops from the team hotel and enjoy complete anonymity amongst the hustle and bustle.
Contrast that to 2003 in Sydney when Sir Clive Woodward’s squad were staying in Manly, a small beachside suburb.
The team hostel was on the beach and that became the place where every England fan migrated. It meant the players couldn’t leave the hotel for a relaxing coffee or a walk, which wasn’t great preparation albeit they went on to lift the trophy.
A lot of those World Cup winners are out here and, to a man, they agreed that last week’s performance by Jones’ side was the best by any England team in their history.
Way better than anything the 2003 side produced.
But both squads were at different stages of their evolution when they reached their respective finals. In 2003, they were a very experienced and settled team who had gone through a lot together. They knew they were going to win the World Cup as they were the best team going into the competition.
The 2019 version came into this tournament as one of four teams, maybe five, with a chance of winning, with New Zealand slight favourites.
This is a relatively young squad, but one that is on a journey rather than ending one like the class of 2003. Most of them will be around for the next World Cup, which adds to the mental preparation required for this game.
And what of the opposition, South Africa?
The Springboks were one of my pre-tournament favourites but my view has altered as the weeks have passed, mainly due to the tactics they are adopting.
They have gone so conservative in their approach and it is all about the power.
They bullied Japan in the quarter-finals and did the same to Wales in what was a terrible semi. But they cared not a jot; they’re in the World Cup final.
Rassie Erasmus has to change the way they play because they can’t do to England what they did to Wales last weekend. England are too powerful.
South Africa have some very exciting players in Faf de Klerk and Cheslin Kolbe but they don’t use them in an attacking way; it is route one, direct rugby with no flair whatsoever.
They do have the power to control the ball for periods but England have the defence to hold them out, so this is why they have to try to play more expansively if they are to have any chance of causing an upset.
Although possible, I just can’t see it. So, England to be crowned World Cup winners for the second time in their history.