Retaining public’s trust is key to crisis

THE decision to ban mass gatherings from next week is surely right as we face the prospect of a surge in coronavirus cases over the next few months.

This is a necessary response mainly intended to free up the emergency services rather than contain an epidemic that is certain to worsen.

Encouraging home-working is another sensible tactic, slowing the progress of Covid-19 in line with the delaying strategy recommended by scientists.

There is clearly a political imperative here – the consensus over coronavirus has been fraying, with claims that the UK is lagging behind other nations in its response.

These steps should partly quell that criticism while avoiding the paralysis in italy caused by its nationwide lockdown. Covid-19 must not be used as ammunition in a political blame game – it is far too serious a matter for that.

As the NHS moves to a war footing we must keep our cool and trust in science – not the scare stories circulating online.

So, what is the Government’s strategy? Essentially, it argues that coronavirus will inevitably spread widely among the general population – it’s merely a matter of time. But timing is the essential component.

There are two ways to stop a viral epidemic: a vaccine – and there isn’t one yet – or herd immunity. Herd immunity, so the Government argues, results when about 60 per cent of the population have caught the bug and developed resistance. This deprives it of readily available hosts and kills it off.

So, say the scientists, we must allow this to happen – because it will happen anyway – but at the optimum moment.

An italian-style lockdown might delay the onset of mass infection but hugely disrupt the economy and merely kick the problem into the winter, when the NHS is most stressed.

Better, then, to see coronavirus peak in the next few months, with hospitals fully mobilised.

The aim of the current delaying tactics is to avoid a sudden spike in cases that would overwhelm medical services and replace it with a more manageable elongated climax – the same number of cases but over a longer period.

At the same time, the elderly and people with compromised immunity must be protected with home care and self-isolation – the recommended seven-day purdah for people with corona-like symptoms is clearly a wise precaution.

in addition, timely guidance should be issued to parents and pupils worried about any disruption to approaching exams. Boris Johnson and Nicola Sturgeon showed courage in levelling with the public about this outbreak.

Mr Johnson is surely right to have been frank about the prospect of many families losing loved ones. We live in an age when people expect government to solve our problems. But Covid-19 is like rain – it cannot be legislated away.

As usual, the Queen strikes the right note. At 93 years of age, she is entitled to seek refuge indoors.

But while postponing royal visits, she continues with audiences at Buckingham Palace. This is the kind of balanced approach we need.

‘Peak Corona’ in the UK is estimated to be ten to 14 weeks away, and it will not be pleasant.

But this country has weathered many storms and it can draw on many assets, the greatest being common sense. our measures may not seem to be as radical as those of other nations but they are founded upon the available evidence.

We must keep our heads and trust in government to continue with this rational approach. This is a real crisis and the last thing it needs is unnecessary dramatics.