Population growth slowdown – despite a rise in migration

POPULATION growth in Scotland is expected to stall, with a rise in migration largely failing to offset a low birth rate.

The population will rise by 99,000, or 1.8 per cent, to 5.54 million between 2018 and 2028, National Records of Scotland (NRS) figures predict.

This would be a slowdown compared to the previous decade, when there was a 4.5 per cent increase.

The NRS report also forecasts the number of elderly Scots will increase as life expectancy improves.

The figures are based on past trends and assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration levels.

Population growth is projected to be mainly in the Central Belt, with areas in the east around Edinburgh – Midlothian, East Lothian and the capital – growing fastest.

A decline in numbers is projected to mainly be in the west and south-west of the country, including the Western Isles, Inverclyde and Argyll and Bute.

Overall, 18 of all 32 council areas are forecast to see growth.

Migration between local authority areas, from the rest of the UK and from overseas will drive the population increase in most areas, the report found. By mid-2028, 30 council areas are forecast to have more people arriving than leaving, with 51 per cent of net migration expected to come from overseas.

Most areas are projected to have more deaths than births, with only five councils bucking the trend.

All local authorities can expect a rise in people aged 75 and over and only Midlothian, East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire will have an increase in the number of children.

Life expectancy for men and women will increase across the country. A girl born in 2027-2028 in the Western Isles is expected to live to 85.8, 6.6 years longer than a girl born at the same time in Glasgow City, the council with the lowest projected life expectancy.

Alan Ferrier, NRS head of demography statistics, said: ‘While Scotland’s overall population is pro-ected to increase over the next decade, there is variation across Scotland, with some councils projected to decline in population.

‘In many areas the number of births are projected to continue to be lower than deaths, highlighting that migration remains the key driver of population increase.’

Economy Secretary Fiona Hyslop said the statistics ‘highlight the challenge we face in communities’. She added: ‘I chair the ministerial population task force, which is committed to working across the Scottish Government to develop and deliver policy solutions, with the aim of growing our population to ensure we have sustainable, vibrant and resilient communities.

‘As things stand, all of Scotland’s population growth over the next 25 years, including our workingage population, is projected to come from migration.

‘We therefore need to maintain inward migration to help grow the economy through a tailored migration policy for Scotland as well as supporting people, including EU citizens, to stay in Scotland.’

‘Key driver of increase’