Sturgeon is urged to give clarity on ‘R number’ calculation
Questions unanswered over lockdown decision
NICOLA Sturgeon was yesterday urged to provide clarity over the ‘R number’ and how it is calculated.
The SNP leader has failed so far to answer basic questions about the data behind the decision not to follow England out of lockdown.
Miss Sturgeon insisted that lockdown restrictions cannot be lifted without the risk of the virus ‘running out of control’.
She said a key factor is that the R number – the rate of infection from each person with the virus – is higher in Scotland.
The First Minister still believes the figure is between 0.7 and 1 but was unable to answer simple questions about the data behind it.
Asked how the figure is calculated and what data that is based on, Miss Sturgeon said it is ‘quite technical’. She said she intended to provide a briefing for journalists with people who are ‘much more qualified than I am to talk about it in detail’.
She said the R number is calculated ‘in the same way in Scotland as it will be in any other country’.
Miss Sturgeon said: ‘It is a complicated approach that takes account of case numbers and death numbers, but we will look to see what we can do to deepen the understanding of just how that number is arrived at.’
Scottish Conservative leader Jackson Carlaw yesterday wrote to Miss Sturgeon to demand daily updates on how the R number in Scotland compares to the UK figure, why its reduction appears to have stalled, the extent to which care homes are responsible, and why it is higher in Scotland despite going into lockdown at the same time.
He said: ‘Like everyone else, we want to see a strategy that saves lives, protects the NHS and moves towards coming out of lockdown when it’s safe to do so. There are emerging differences between the approach of the UK Government and the Scottish Government, and that will have an impact on the lives of Scots, and the wellbeing of the economy. So the SNP Government now needs to set out exactly why this approach is different, and what evidence it is based upon – we can’t simply have weeks go by where Nicola Sturgeon asserts a position without the detailed reasons for it being revealed.’
Miss Sturgeon said yesterday: ‘Based on our assessment of the R number, we think we are slightly higher than the rest of the UK, and certainly the rest of the UK on average... certainly slightly above in terms of a comparison with England.
‘That would suggest we are slightly behind in terms of the infection curve, which given that our first cases were identified and confirmed later would make some sense. But whether we can put a set number of days on that I think is much more uncertain.
‘I will want to look very closely at the data that emerges in the coming days – the data around case numbers, hospital admissions, ICU admissions and particularly the NRS [National Records of Scotland] figures that come on Wednesday for number of deaths to give me greater confidence that the virus is on a sustained downward trend, and that we then hopefully will see the R number reduce as well in Scotland.’
She said she wanted to avoid ‘a resurgence of the virus that will tip us over that all-important 1 number in terms of R’.
‘Impact on the lives of Scots’