2 METRES FROM AN ECONOMIC DISASTER
Pressure grows to cut gap and save jobs
HARD-HIT businesses have demanded that the two-metre rule be cut to help rescue Scotland’s battered economy.
The scale of the looming financial crisis was laid bare yesterday, with official figures showing the UK economy slumped by 20.4 per cent in April, the largestever monthly contraction.
SNP ministers fear the figure for Scotland could be even worse.
Business leaders have warned that the social distancing rule must be brought down to one metre or Scotland’s vital tourism and hospitality sectors face massive job cuts and widespread closures.
Bosses said that two in three Scottish pubs and restaurants will be unable to open their doors unless the restrictions are eased.
Scottish Secretary Alister Jack yesterday became the most senior
UK minister to call for the current rule to be changed in Scotland. He said: ‘We knew the numbers were going to be bad and I suspect they will be no better in May.
‘As soon as it is safe to do so – and I believe we’re getting to that position, we are seeing very low death rates, which is part of the five tests and we are seeing an R number below one – we have got to move as quickly as we can to open up the economy again.
‘I’d say to Nicola Sturgeon she must have an open mind on that. We see non-essential retailers in England opening next week.’
Speaking on BBC Radio Scotland, he said the virus was receding faster than anticipated so Miss Sturgeon should consider opening up the economy more quickly.
The R number – the average number of people infected by someone with the virus – is an estimated 0.6-0.8 in Scotland, compared with 0.7-0.9 across the UK.
Mr Jack called for a cut to one metre ‘as soon as it is possible to do so with the R number suppressed’.
He added: ‘To get back to something to near normal in the way that we conduct our lives and our businesses, as we see the virus recede – and we’ve seen this happen without any bad consequences in other European countries – we should move to one metre when the time is right.’
He said Boris Johnson has ‘an open mind’ and believes it should be cut if possible.
Hopes were growing yesterday that the Prime Minister will introduce a one-metre rule in England within weeks. Mr Johnson
‘We knew the numbers would be bad’
said: ‘We’re working with the scientists to work out a moment when the numbers are down so far that we can really say that the two-metre rule is no longer necessary.’
Hospitality firms have led calls for the two-metre rule to be cut, and fears were also raised yesterday about the impact the current guidance could have on schools and sports stadiums. It is understood Scottish Rugby has told ministers that two metres would put Murrayfield Stadium’s capacity at 15 per cent of normal but a onemetre rule would see this rise to 50 per cent.
A coalition of pub and restaurant operators – including Caledonian Heritable, DRG, Buzzworks, Montpeliers, Manorview, Signature Pubs, Lisini and Caledonia Inns – warned that two-thirds of the industry will remain closed because of ‘unsustainable restrictions... which will no doubt result in a devastating number of jobs lost’.
They want ministers to adopt a strategy used in New Zealand and Guernsey, where pubs and other small traders are asked to ‘track and trace’ customers, allowing social distancing to be eased.
Graeme Arnott, of Caledonian Heritable, one of the biggest independent pub and restaurant operators in the country, said: ‘If two metres is there, I would think we would not open any units. If you’re closed and you are not operating, and your staff are being paid [through the furlough scheme] you have no real pressure.
‘But if you take staff off furlough and the business is not there, you are committed to pay wages without trade, and all the other commitments you have without any knowledge of how the business will perform with social distancing in the mix. A lot of small pubs are barely surviving already. There is a danger, without doubt.’
Scotland’s GDP figures, covering the first three months of the year, will be published next month.
Finance Secretary Kate Forbes admitted that the impact on Scotland’s economy ‘could be worse for slightly longer than in England’.
Liz Cameron, of the Scottish Chambers of Commerce, said: ‘The longer businesses have to wait to open their doors and begin to trade, the worse the impact is going to be on jobs, livelihoods and communities across Scotland.’
Scottish Tory leader Jackson Carlaw said: ‘There is a difficult balance to strike, but given the experience of other countries – like Denmark or Germany – together with the progress we have already achieved, it is now time to consider reducing the social distance measure from two metres.’ The First
Minister said she expects to see ‘a significant impact on employment and a rise in unemployment’ when job figures are released next week.
Asked about cutting the twometre rule, Miss Sturgeon said: ‘Given the strength of the economic argument that many are making, if we did not think it had a risk associated with it, why would we not just agree to do it?
‘There is no interest in this Government in making life more difficult for businesses than it already has to be. This is all about getting the right balance.’
National clinical director Jason Leitch said: ‘All of our advisory groups [are] suggesting two metres is the correct distance for this phase of Scotland’s pandemic.’
Comment – Page 18
‘Difficult balance to strike’