DON’T PANIC!
10 reasons why there’s so much less to fear from a second wave
WITH summer now a distant memory, a cloud of doom seems to have returned. Yesterday, Scotland recorded 159 new Covid-19 cases and there are fears of the prospect of a second spike.
While First Minister Nicola Sturgeon warned we have seen ‘roughly a trebling of daily cases’ since three weeks ago, this week UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock was far more blunt.
Pointing to the rise in infections among Britain’s young, he urged them: ‘Don’t kill your gran by catching coronavirus and passing it on.’
Indeed, such is the fear among officials that one member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies has suggested Christmas could be called off.
But before we sink into apocalyptic misery, let’s look at the science.
For, despite the apparent doom and gloom, not everything is as bad as it seems.
In fact, as these ten reasons reveal, all the indications are that Covid19’s second strike won’t nearly be as bad as the first...
1 Proportion of positive tests are down
YES, more people are testing positive for Covid-19. But rather than simply being the result of a surge in infections, it’s also because far more tests are being carried out now than at the height of the pandemic.
The latest figures show there were 14,341 tests for Covid that reported results – so the 159 positive cases are just a fraction of the number of tests being carried out.
2 Infections less virulent
WHILE cases of Covid-19 have been creeping up in the UK since early July, death rates among those infected have plummeted.
Researchers at oxford University have found that the percentage of those infected that die fell from 6 per cent on June 24 to 1.5 per cent on August 5.
That amounts to a four-fold drop in less than six weeks.
While it may sound callous, one explanation is the virus claimed the most vulnerable victims first, causing a strikingly high initial fatality rate.
But another reason could be that coronavirus is being spread in smaller doses, thanks to social distancing.
This means that people may be less intensely infected than otherwise and therefore more likely to beat the virus.
As the statistician Tim Harford wrote on these pages recently, the prospect of dying from Covid-19 is not much more than taking a bath.
3 Fatalities are falling
THE latest weekly National Records for Scotland report shows a continuing decline in the number of people dying from Covid-19. Since the peak week in mid-April, when 661 virus-related deaths were registered, this week’s report with five deaths shows the lowest weekly total since the first was recorded in March.
4 Life-saving drugs found
WHEN Covid-19 first hit, doctors were forced to improvise treatments as scientists scrambled to find a cure.
Early on, many patients in intensive care were put on ventilators – despite the fact that it is now widely regarded as an ineffective, and in some cases dangerous, treatment.
The good news is that in recent months cheap and effective medicines have been discovered in the form of two steroid drugs, dexamethasone and hydrocortisone.
Just last week, a major study showed that treatment with these steroids can save eight lives for every 100 critically ill patients treated – a figure which was hailed as ‘impressive’ by its researchers.
They achieved this by using the drugs to effectively calm a patient’s immune system that would otherwise be viciously aggravated by Covid19, with potentially lethal consequences.
‘At the beginning of the year, at times it felt almost hopeless knowing that we had no specific treatments,’ says Professor Anthony Gordon, from Imperial College London.
‘Less than six months later we’ve found clear, reliable evidence in high quality clinical trials of how we can tackle this devastating disease.’
5 Virus shifts to resilient young
WHILE positive tests among older, more vulnerable, generations have been falling, rising Covid-19 cases are being driven by people in their teens and 20s, where infection numbers have tripled since July, according to official data.
This means the number of severe cases should remain low, since younger people are disproportionately more likely to either be asymptomatic or have manageable symptoms.
According to Cambridge University’s Sir David Spiegelhalter: ‘In school kids aged five to 14 it’s not only a tiny risk, it’s a tiny proportion of the normal risk.’
WHEN the virus first hit, scientists warned it may take years for an adequate vaccine to be found.
To further compound fears, early evidence suggested that our bodies might only produce antibodies against Covid-19 for a few months at most, thus rendering vaccinations pointlessly temporary.
But last week a study in Iceland found that when our bodies are naturally infected by the coronavirus, they actually produce a long-lasting form of protective antibodies.
Moreover, as of yesterday, some six vaccines were in the final stages of testing, known as phase three clinical trials – while Russia has already approved another, though scientists are sceptical that adequate safety procedures were observed.
Crucially, leading vaccine researchers at oxford University believe they have made a breakthrough – leading Kate Bingham, chair of the UK Vaccine Taskforce, to say: ‘I think we have a shot of getting a vaccine this year.’
7 We are wiser and better prepared
THE UK is vastly better prepared for a new wave of Covid19 infections than it was in March, with NHS hospitals restructured to cope with infectious patients.
Indeed, following the rapid construction of the temporary NHS Louisa Jordan Hospital in Glasgow, that facility is currently being used to deal with
NHS waiting lists but is ready to spring into action if needed for Covid patients.
8 The public army
WHILE much of the Government’s initial Covid-19 guidance was criticised by the public for being unclear, the vast majority of Britain is now doing its bit to ensure the virus doesn’t spread – through a combination of social distancing, mask-wearing and handwashing. If these preventative strategies are practised constantly and consistently, future spreads of Covid-19 will be limited.
9 Initial fear proved unfounded
AT the pandemic’s peak in March, Prime Minister Boris Johnson presented a now much-derided paper published by Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London that claimed 500,000 people in the UK could die from Covid-19.
The current death toll stands at just more than 40,000 – far less than the figure first mooted by the Government.
10 Local lockdowns work
THE introduction of regional lockdowns following localised spikes have been unpopular.
But it does seem that they are an effective tool in Britain’s anti-Covid arsenal.
Parts of the west of Scotland are in lockdown but similar restrictions in Aberdeen were lifted after they successfully brought numbers of new cases down.
With their implementation, there is every chance to stop the virus from spreading from region to region.
6 Vaccine optimism