NORMAL? NO, BUT AT LEAST WE WON’T BE LIVING IN FEAR

THE imminent launch of the vaccination programme signals the beginning of the end of a long and gruelling period of human history. Lockdowns and social distancing have become part of our vocabulary in the last nine months.

I’m finally looking forward to seeing my two-and-half-year- old grandson again, for the first time in a year. And it may not be too long before foreign travel becomes more of a possibility – most of us could do with a break in the sun.

The Pfizer vaccine has a very high effectiveness rate of more than 90 per cent – much higher than the flu vaccine, which is around 60 per cent if you’re lucky.

Storing the Covid vaccine at very low temperatures does pose some logistical challenges. But it only needs to be kept at -70C in the run-up to being used, not while it’s in the actual vaccination centre.

So that’s not a huge problem, and the fact that the Army is involved should give us all some reassurance – they are very good at logistics and getting things done.

What remains unknown is how long those who get the vaccine will be immune for, and that’s something the regulators will be keeping a very close eye on. We simply don’t know – time will tell – but one might hope that it would give immunity for perhaps a year.

And it’s important that people come back for the second dose, which will ensure they are immune for longer. You don’t become immune immediately either – with the flu jab it takes a couple of weeks.

No one will be immune from Covid by Christmas – but they may well be by the New Year.

There’s also a debate about how much of the population will have to be vaccinated. Some believe herd immunity would require vaccination rates of 80 per cent, but I believe it could be closer to about 60 per cent.

The aim is to get to the point where the virus basically ceases to exist in any meaningful sense because case numbers are very low, and falling. And we know that’s possible, because in some Asian countries and in New Zealand, they’ve managed to eliminate it, more or less, through testing and effective self-isolation, even without a vaccine.

The priority groups are care home residents and those who look after them, and then older people – I will be among the first to get it, as I’m over 80.

BUT that won’t affect transmission rates – they will only really start to fall when we get into subsequent phases, when younger people are vaccinated. Public health authorities will have to make a judgment about how low case numbers are before restrictions on our lives and movements are eased or lifted. But it’s likely social distancing and other restrictions will be with us for a while yet.

Even once you are vaccinated, for example, you wouldn’t be able to get back into the office – unless it was deemed safe by the government and public health authorities.

I don’t have any doubt at all about the safety of the vaccine because regulatory approval is extremely tough.

Some may have doubts because it appears it was produced quickly, but clinical trials normally proceed at a leisurely pace. They depend on adequate funding, and there’s a lot of bureaucracy, whereas in this case there was enough money, and lots of willing volunteers. And the regulator didn’t just get the information from Pfizer a few days ago – they will have been keeping in touch with developments for months.

But it would be a mistake to make the vaccine compulsory, or to introduce curbs on those who don’t get it, which has been suggested this week – for example barring them from pubs and restaurants.

History shows that’s a bad idea – in the 1800s we jailed people who didn’t get the smallpox vaccine. It gave to rise ‘conscientious objectors’ – a term later used to describe pacifists who objected to fighting in the First World War – who refused to be vaccinated.

As for flying abroad, it may be a while before you get a fortnight in Torremolinos, though vaccination will make it easier and safer to go abroad. The reason is that you may be going to a country with relatively high levels of Covid, so we need to make sure there’s passenger testing at airports.

There are potential pitfalls ahead and life won’t go back to normal overnight, but at least we will be able to protect the most vulnerable. And in time we will be able to get back to life as we once knew it – without having to live in fear of a virus that has turned the world upside down.