STUCK IN LOCKDOWN UNTIL THE SUMMER?

Fears grow that restrictions might go on for months amid gloomy new forecasts

LOCKDOWN could drag on into the summer over fears a hasty relaxation could pave the way for another deadly spike.

Scientists said any easing of rules would mean a quick upsurge in community transmission after weeks of painful gains in controlling the virus.

Bars and restaurants should also be kept locked down until at least May, according to government health experts.

It comes as Deputy First Minister John Swinney cast doubt on an early release from tough restrictions until the rate of infection is brought down significantly.

Scottish Government advisers warned this would depend on a mass shutdown of social interaction and could take months to achieve.

Downing Street refused to rule out the possibility of the national lockdown stretching into summer.

Boris Johnson said it was ‘too early’ to say whether the crippling restrictions would end this spring, as he has previously suggested.

Professor Jason Leitch, Scotland’s national clinical director, said data suggests the R number – the virus reproduction rate – has fallen to around one north of the Border.

But he said there is still ‘very high

prevalence’ of the virus ‘which means we can’t take our foot off the safety measures’.

UK ministers were preparing to meet today to discuss draconian travel restrictions aimed at protecting the country from mutant Covid strains, but which could also wreck the summer holiday plans of millions.

Home Secretary Priti Patel last night said it was ‘far too early to speculate’ about whether foreign holidays would be possible this summer.

And as fears for the future of the hospitality industry grow, Paul Waterson of the Scottish Licensed Trade Association warned that pubs and restaurants are in a ‘dire situation’.

He said: ‘A lot of people are desperate to get open but at the same time we are aware that it’s a double-edge sword and we don’t want a third wave of this.

‘The vaccine does give us all a little hope but we don’t want to open until it’s safe. The longer this goes on the worse it’s going to get for a lot of businesses, and we are all worried to see what the outcome will be. And if pubs and restaurants do have to stay closed until May, that will only be possible if the furlough schemes, rates holidays and other grants are put in place because it’s very expensive to stay closed.

‘We have lost a lot of businesses already and we could lose more if we don’t.’

In other developments in the battle against Covid yesterday:

Pupils in Scotland face the threat of being kept out of school for another six weeks over fears their return would see a spike in the R number;

GPs north of the Border demanded to be given more control over the vaccination drive to speed up the effort;

Another 89 people died in Scotland as hospital admissions increased to yet another record high;

UK ministers were preparing to discuss plans to force all arrivals to the UK to quarantine for ten days in airport hotels.

The Prime Minister has repeatedly spoken about a return to normality in the spring. Last month, he said: ‘We’re no longer resting on the mere hope that we can return to normal next year in the spring but rather the sure and certain knowledge that we will succeed.’

But asked whether he was ‘looking at summer rather than spring’ for an easing of lockdown yesterday, he replied: ‘I think it’s too early to say when we will be able to lift some of the restrictions.’

The Prime Minister said that the new variant of Covid ‘does spread very fast indeed’, adding: ‘It unquestionably will be a very tough few weeks ahead.’

Asked directly whether he could rule out the lockdown lasting into summer, the Prime Minister’s official spokesman said: ‘We will continue to keep all of the scientific evidence and data under review.

‘It remains our position that we want to ease restrictions as soon as it is safe to do so, but in order for us to do that we need to see the transmission rates of the virus come down and we need to see the pressure on the NHS reduce.’

Mr Swinney said lockdown is helping to ‘stabilise case numbers’ in Scotland but warned they remain ‘concerningly high’.

Asked whether lockdown restrictions will continue until May, a Scottish Government spokesman highlighted comments made by Nicola Sturgeon on Wednesday, when she said it was ‘vital that we do everything we can to protect our NHS by slowing the spread of the virus and bringing case numbers down’.

The First Minister said evidence that lockdown rules were working was ‘encouraging’ but added: ‘We need those trends to continue in order to be more certain that this phase of the epidemic is on a downward trajectory.’

Vin Diwaker, medical director for the NHS in London, rounded on those flouting lockdown. He said: ‘Breaking the rules is like switching on a light in the middle of the blackout in the Blitz.

‘It doesn’t just put you at risk in your house, it puts your whole street and the whole of your community at risk.’

‘The longer it goes on, the worse it will get’