Will we ALL be backseat drivers in the future?
Suddenly self-driving cars are a step closer... but that’s just one of the startling gear changes on the road ahead
For decades, the first maxim of learning to drive has been a simple one: ‘Never take both hands off the wheel.’ After all, disobeying it not only puts your life in danger — it also puts others’ lives at risk too.
But all that might be about to change. Milestone UN legislation was passed last month which will allow for the safe introduc-tion of automated vehicles in certain traffic environments.
The UN regulation establishes strict requirements for Automated Lane Keeping Systems (ALKS) for passenger cars which, once activated, are in primary control of the vehicle. However, the driver can over-ride such systems and can be requested by the system to intervene, at any moment. And already governments are preparing new regulations to allow some motorists to cruise without their hands on the wheel, and it could start as soon as next 2021.
As a motoring editor, I have driven — in con-trolled conditions — prototypes of these cars, including BMWs, Nissans and Jaguars. Undoubtedly it’s impressive stuff, even if car traditionalists will no doubt mourn their loss, and many lead-ing car manufacturers suspect that the motor car will see more change in the next decade than it has seen in the previous 100 years.
But what exactly can the motor-ists of 2030 expect? Here are my predictions . . .
A CHAT-NAV ON THE DASHBOARD
SIMILAR to today’s Alexa smart speakers, which are able to do everything from telling you the weather to sending a dictated email, all vehicles will essentially be voice-controlled computers on wheels.
To travel, all you’ll need to do is tell your car where you want to go, the satnav will instruct the car to take you there, and off it will drive you without you touching the steering wheel or pedal.
Yet despite these vast technologi-cal advances, don’t expect to be able to watch a movie or play a video game while cruising. Drivers will still need to pay attention in case there is an emergency — such as a last-second collision — that requires them to take control of the car.
HYDROGEN MAY BEAT ELECTRIC
Governments have already decreed that all petrol, diesel and hybrid cars will soon be banned from sale.
Anticipating this, it is likely that by 2030 most vehicles will be either powered by electricity or hydro-gen gas — the latter of which is contained in a fuel cell and under-goes a chemical reaction which produces electricity to power an electric motor.
Given it is very energy efficient, many manufacturers favour the hydrogen route and some — such as Hyundai and Toyota — already have a limited number of vehicles in production.
DRIVER, YOU ARE THE WEAKEST LINK
IT IS often said that the most dangerous part of any car is the nut behind the steering wheel — and many believe that autono-mous vehicles, which are not prone to human error, will help to reduce the number of road traffic accidents.
That’s partly why many compa-nies have started fitting their new models with ‘drive assist’ features, including those that give the steering wheel a nudge when the car strays into another lane, and adaptive cruise control, which applies the brakes and accelerator to keep your vehicle a safe distance from the one in front.
In the US, Tesla’s new Autopilot feature can even now change lanes without driver permission — though the software isn’t approved in Europe yet.
Because, of course, relying on computers isn’t always fail-safe. Two years ago, for instance, a woman was run over and killed by an Uber self-driving car in Arizona.
Yet despite that tragedy — which the US National Transpor-tation Safety Board later ruled was primarily caused by a distracted safety operator — as technologies are fine-tuned such accidents will become increasingly scarce, especially if drivers are required to monitor the road ahead at all times.
AGE OF THE POP-UP STEERING WHEEL
‘Form follows function’ is a famous mantra of car designers. And the advent of the electric and driverless car offers untold design opportunities.
Electric vehicles, for example, don’t need a conventional engine up front, while ‘driverless’ vehicles could have a steering wheel that can be stowed away to pop out when needed.
In the hope that cars will one day double up as cruising meeting rooms, Aston Martin has already produced a prototype model without a steering wheel and seats facing towards one another. But given that in 2030 drivers will still need to keep their eyes on the road, I doubt such designs will be approved any time soon.
Far more likely are designs based on utilitarian pods.
Indeed, earlier this year I became one of the first people in the world to experience the new fully elec-tric, self-driving ‘pod’ car, due to hit our roads next year.
Developed jointly between Jaguar Land rover, and Warwick University, the ‘robo-car’ resem-bled neither a coupé, saloon nor a 4x4, but a small bus or van.
TAXING TIMES ARE COMING . . .
AS petrol and diesel cars are replaced by zero-emissions vehi-cles, governments will need to get their revenue from somewhere. Experts predict this may be some type of ‘pay as you drive’ road tax.
It’s all too easy to imagine how the increasing number of gantries housing cameras — cur-rently used to read registration plates — could be easily adapted to track cars and charge them by the kilometre at peak and off-peak rates, with invoices arriving through your letterbox just like your utility bills.
. . . BUT THE SPEED CAMERA IS GOING
BY 2030 it is unlikely that fully autonomous cars and human-drive vehicles will be able to mix on the same road — initially for safety if nothing else. So expect dedicated lanes, just like cycle lanes. But if there are entire roads dedicated to driverless cars, don’t expect speed cameras on them. They won’t be needed. The car will be constantly tracked and any speeding will be flagged on a cen-tral system — that’s if the cars don’t have in-built speed limits.
BRIGHT FUTURE FOR THE ELDERLY
AT THE moment, many elderly drivers with ailments such as diabetes and poor eyesight are forced to give up their licences and stay off the road – for their safety and the safety of all other road users. Yet with the rise of the driverless car, and its reduced passenger involve-ment, many former drivers will hope that a lower threshold would allow them to get back on the road. Indeed, the president of the AA in Britain Edmund King says that ‘a driverless car would be a godsend’ for his own mother, who was forced to quit driving recently and misses the sense of independence that it provided her with.
SAVE YOURSELF A WEEK A YEAR
GIVEN self-driving cars are able to communicate with each other and deter-mine exactly where others are, they are far more effi-cient than human drivers at navigating congestion. In fact, BMW predicts that when all cars on the road are autonomous, drivers in major cities will spend as many as five whole days — or a working week — less in traffic a year.
BUT THERE ARE TECHNO-POTHOLES
SPY chiefs have recently warned that the super-fast 5G mobile system — central to driverless cars’ communication and navigation systems — could be hacked by ‘terrorists, hostile states, and serious criminals.’
If that were to happen with an autonomous vehicle, a hacker could easily wreak havoc.
For example, all it would take is for them to bring a few tactically placed vehicles to a halt to create a city-wide standstill.
More disturbingly, hijacked driverless cars could also be deadly in the hands of a ruthless terrorist gang.
‘Cars could be turned into bombs on wheels that are remotely con-trolled by terrorists,’ a spokesman for the Institute of the Motor Industry (IMI) said.
‘You don’t have to have a terrorist on board [because they are driverless]. It’s risk-free to them.’
Fortunately, Professor Jim Saker, Director of the Centre for Automotive Management at Loughborough University, in the UK, has said: ‘The potential for criminal or terrorist activity utilising vehicles is yet to have been fully exploited, but the manufacturers are already looking at protecting vehicles from cyber-attack.’