Sending kids back to school ‘could see infection rise again’
THE first phase of the return to Scotland’s schools may lead to an increase in coronavirus infection rates, according to the Scottish Government’s scientific advice.
Education Secretary John Swinney yesterday admitted that the R number – the average number of people infected by someone with Covid-19 – could rise as a consequence of some pupils returning to the classroom today.
It came as a health expert accused the Scottish Government of ‘misinformation’ about claims there are low levels of transmission among younger children.
Pupils in primary 1-3 return to school full-time today, while nurseries also reopen and senior secondary pupils can attend to complete essential practical work.
Mr Swinney yesterday insisted the return to school is ‘safe’ – but also admitted it could lead to an increase in the R number, which is currently between 0.7 and 0.9.
Dr Deepti Gurdasani, an epidemiologist at Queen Mary University in London, told BBC Scotland that the return of children was ‘really concerning’, citing surveys which suggest it is wrong to say there is not ‘significant transmission’ in primary schools.
Asked if a letter to parents from national clinical director Jason Leitch saying younger children are less likely to get or pass on the virus was wrong, she said: ‘Yes, there is a lot of misinformation around this, and a lot of it is based on interpretation of flawed studies which have only included symptom-based testing for children.
‘We know that children are more likely to be asymptomatic, so if you only test them when they are symptomatic you are going to miss a lot of transmission.
‘Studies that are less biased, like the Office for National Statistics survey, which is a random survey of the population, show us that there is significant transmission.’
She said schools should enforce mask use and introduce smaller classes and better ventilation before allowing pupils to return.
Responding to the comments, Mr Swinney said: ‘I do believe it is safe. I base that view on the very detailed clinical analysis prepared for us by our education clinical advisory group. What that demonstrated was that younger children are much less susceptible to transmission of this virus.’
He said safety measures put in place would ensure children are returning to a ‘safe environment’.
However, when asked what the scientific advice says about how the first phase of the school return will push the R number up, he said: ‘It doesn’t give us an absolutely precise predictor but it does indicate that there is the possibility of that happening.
‘Adults making sure they follow the physical distancing or maskwearing requirements at the school gate are critical to making sure the return of young children is not undermined by parental transmission.
‘We don’t have a lot of headroom between where the R level is just now and 1, where the virus begins to spread exponentially. We’ve got to avoid that at all costs.’
Ministers will look at evidence of the impact of today’s move before deciding whether to go ahead with phase two of the school return.
Scottish Conservative education spokesman Jamie Greene said: ‘The return to schools for many pupils is a welcome step. However, it must be the first part of a sensible plan to continue to return young people to the classroom.’
‘Younger children less susceptible’