Britain ‘at risk’ as third wave of contagion spreads across Europe
THE third wave of Covid-19 battering Europe after the EU’s vaccine crisis could spread to Britain, Government scientists fear.
Deaths and hospital cases are still plummeting in the UK but officials say the country is in a ‘more fragile place’ than a fortnight ago amid signs that infections are plateauing rather than falling.
They are keeping a close eye on the surge in cases sweeping France, Germany and Italy, where hospitals are again in crisis and the South African variant is spreading.
In the first wave last March and the second in October, Britain lagged behind mainland Europe by about two weeks.
Experts fear this pattern could repeat itself and potentially dangerous variants – particularly the South African one – could be imported across the Channel.
The EU has been mired in a vaccine crisis for months, with only a fraction of its population jabbed amid a row over the Oxford/AstraZeneca drug.
Several EU member states suspended use of the jab over blood clot fears, only to reverse their position when the European Medicines Agency insisted it was safe and effective.
By contrast, the UK’s vaccine rollout means half of adults here are now protected, including almost all of the most vulnerable. Hospitalisations and deaths should therefore remain relatively low even if there is a spike in cases.
However, Government sources said events in Europe highlight the need for caution as lockdown is eased.
Sage said yesterday the R rate – the average number of people infected by someone with the virus – has increased slightly. It is now at 0.6 to 0.9, up from 0.6 to 0.8 last week.
Scientists believe the reopening of schools on March 8 south of the Border could have caused the R rate to rise further but it is too early to know. The rapid decrease in cases since mid-January appears to have levelled off and they are now hovering at around 6,000 a day. A senior Government adviser warned the UK is ‘not out of the woods’.
Yesterday’s weekly Office for National Statistics survey revealed about one person in 340 in England is now infected. This is down from one in 270 the week before and a peak of one in 50 in early January.
Infections are now at the lowest rate since the week of September 21 but are still about five times higher than in July and August.
Daily UK deaths are now averaging below 100 after falling by 37 per cent in the past week. Another 101 were recorded yesterday and the seven-day average is at 98 a day. This is the first time since October 11 it has been below 100.
The pandemic response on the Continent took another chaotic twist yesterday as the French regulators ignored medical advice and banned the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine for anyone under 55. It came 24 hours after EU regulators said it was ‘safe and effective’ for all adults. France put 21million people in 16 areas – including its capital – under lockdown at midnight last night. Italy, where overall deaths have risen above 100,000, also tightened restrictions. In a further blow to the EU’s vaccination drive, Denmark, Sweden and Norway said yesterday they would not resume using the AstraZeneca jab right away.
Germany has started using it but Chancellor Angela Merkel, pictured, will meet regional leaders on Monday and may be forced to introduce a hard lockdown.
She said she was ready to receive the AstraZeneca jab but ‘would like to wait until it’s my turn’.
Italy’s prime minister Mario Draghi also said he would take the jab but insisted suspending it was not a mistake.
Belgium tightened its pandemic restrictions yesterday, while Switzerland delayed a planned loosening of its measures. Poland, meanwhile, begins a new lockdown today.