Hammer blow for the Nats as poll forecasts a vote of only 47 per cent

NICOLA Sturgeon’s bid to turn the General Election into a ‘de facto’ independence referendum is on course to backfire after a new poll predicted the SNP will fall short of votes.

The First Minister plans to hijack the 2024 election as a single issue vote on breaking up Britain, saying a second referendum should be held if pro-independence parties secure 50 per cent of the vote.

However, a new poll has indicated that the SNP would win only 47 per cent of the vote in those circumstances.

The Tories, Labour and Lib Dems are forecast to win 50 per cent of votes, meaning the remaining 3 per cent of ‘other’ parties would need to campaign explicitly for independence for any chance of Miss Sturgeon’s plan to succeed.

The survey, carried out for The Sunday Times by Panelbase, also found 44 per cent oppose plans for a referendum in October 2023, with 43 per cent in favour.

Scottish Tory constitution spokesman Donald Cameron said: ‘The SNP government needs to focus on the key challenges facing the country, the global cost-of-living crisis and soaring NHS waiting times, instead of splitting the population with a reckless push to break up the UK.’

Labour MSP Sarah Boyack added: ‘The focus of all politicians must be on rebuilding the NHS, our economy, our public services and tackling our climate crisis.’

However, the findings suggest support for independence has sneaked ahead by 48 per cent to 47 per cent, with 5 per cent undecided – the first time since April last year a poll has put Yes ahead.

The First Minister hailed the ‘very encouraging’ poll on Twitter, adding: ‘Yes ahead, surge in support for choice in 2023, and the SNP within touching distance of majority of votes in GE should it become de facto indyref (which we hope isn’t necessary).

‘Lots to do though. Bring on the debate on why now is time for Indy.’

Pollster Mark Diffley said support for the two sides was ‘absolutely in deadlock’.

He told BBC Scotland’s The Sunday Show: ‘Because the polls are so tight at the moment, if we get into a campaign a marginal swing in either direction will make the different.’

Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice said: ‘Unionists are not going to persuade Yes supporters of the merits of the Union by arguing against a referendum that nearly every Yes supporter wants.

‘Equally, Sturgeon is unlikely to persuade No supporters who do not want a referendum to back Yes because Boris Johnson is being “undemocratic”.

‘Changing minds is what both Nicola Sturgeon and Boris Johnson badly need to do.’