Countdown to the vote that could topple SNP leader

AS Humza Yousaf clings to power by his fingertips, the political landscape has been thrown into turmoil. Here GRAHAM GRANT looks at what could happen next.

Why is Humza Yousaf in trouble?

The First Minister scrapped the SNP’s power-sharing deal with the Greens after three tumultuous years.

Green MSPs are furious they have been kicked out of power – and the SNP is now running a minority government, meaning it will have to rely on the votes of opposition MSPs to function.

On Thursday, the Tories tabled a vote of no confidence in the First Minister, which could lead to the end of his reign after only around a year in the top job.

What is the significance of a no confidence vote?

A motion has been tabled which states that Humza Yousaf is unfit to be First Minister, and MSPs will now vote on that motion.

The result is not legally binding but in reality losing the vote would be an enormous political blow to Mr Yousaf, possibly triggering his resignation.

Is the vote of no confidence in Yousaf or his government?

The Tory motion calls for a vote of no confidence in the First Minister but yesterday Labour said it had lodged a motion for a separate no confidence vote in the SNP Government.

This dramatically raises the stakes as a defeat on the vote of no confidence in the government could trigger a snap election, potentially driving the Nationalists out of office after 1 years.

Mr Yousaf would have to quit, leading to a 28-day period in which the office of First Minister has to be filled. There would only be an election if it is unfilled at the end of that period.

How many votes does Yousaf need to win?

He would need at least 64 of the 129 MSPs to support him in order to win the no confidence vote in him as First Minister.

This is because Presiding Officer Alison Johnstone traditionally does not vote.

She would only vote if there is a tie, and by convention the Presiding Officer uses their vote to support the status quo – so would back the First Minister.

What chance does Yousaf have of winning the vote?

The SNP has 63 MSPs, leaving Mr Yousaf one short of the simple majority he needs to reach.

As a result, attention is focused on which way the Alba Party’s Ash Regan – who quit the SNP last year – will cast her ballot.

It is possible Mr Yousaf could win over one or two Green MSPs – but at this stage it seems highly unlikely given the poor relations between the parties.

Will the SNP survive Labour’s no confidence vote in the government?

The SNP also needs to secure a simple majority to win this vote. It remains to be seen whether the Greens will back the Labour motion, as doing so would be a condemnation of their own record in government over the past three years as two Green MSPs, Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater, served as ministers.

Again, Ms Regan could play a decisive role. If the SNP loses, Mr Yousaf would have to quit.

When are these votes likely to happen?

Members are usually given at least two sitting days’ notice of such a vote. The Scottish parliamentary bureau is due to meet on Tuesday morning to schedule business so Wednesday or Thursday would be the earliest possible dates for the votes.

What if Yousaf loses the personal vote of no confidence and quits?

In the event Mr Yousaf resigned as First Minister, MSPs would have 28 days to elect a replacement – and if they failed to do so, it would lead to an election being called.

How soon could an election be held?

Normally the dissolution of parliament takes place six weeks before polling day.

What happens if Yousaf wins the vote?

If he wins the no confidence vote in him, he would be able to stay on in the post.

However, if he was to secure only a narrow victory in such a ballot (as seems highly probable) his leadership would be left seriously weakened.

Could an election happen even if Yousaf and the SNP survive the votes?

Theoretically, yes, but an extraordinary (unscheduled) election only occurs at Holyrood if two-thirds of the 129 MSPs (86) vote to dissolve parliament.

Meanwhile, a general election for the UK Government is expected to be held this year, and could happen as early as this summer, raising the prospect of two elections in coming months.

Would there be a First Minister during the election campaign – who would lead the government?

It is likely that the Deputy First Minister Shona Robison would take over. Other ministers would also carry out essential government business.