Don’t write off Wales just more twists and turns in

EVERYBODY seems to be writing off Wales when it comes to their World Cup prospects, but when it comes to this group of passionate and committed players the fat lady won’t have even begun clearing her throat just yet.

Mathematically, there are still 15 points for Chris Coleman’s team to play for.

Even the most wildly optimistic of one-eyed Welsh fans knows we’re not going to get every single one of those.

To be honest, there will probably be another three lost in the next game against Serbia.

Given they are Wales’ bogey team, that would probably have been the case whether Gareth Bale were playing or not.

But there are two things that still work in Wales’ favour in the race for Russia 2018.

The first is that from day one Group D was always going to be wide open, with lots of drawn matches.

It has proved the case with Wales in particular.

That is likely to remain the case as we approach the second-half of qualifying.

Serbia, Austria and the Irish are likely to take points off one another, so that would play into Wales’ hands – provided Bale and Co rediscover their Euro 2016-type winning ways.

The second thing Welsh fans can cling onto is that whereas top spot, and automatic qualification is pretty much gone, there is still the back door route to Russia via the play-offs.

This in itself is fraught with complications, of course.

One of the second-placed teams across Europe’s nine groups will miss out on the play-offs – and that could well be the team from Group D.

The other is that Wales could well be involved in a nip and tuck battle for second spot, which could even come down to a win-or-bust last-day Cardiff drama against the Republic of Ireland, involving goal difference and goals scored.

It is impossible, of course, to predict with any real accuracy what will happen in the remaining 15 matches in Group D. So don’t hold us to this. However, we’ve had a go anyway at crunching the numbers to analyse what a final table could (could, no more than that) look like... and it may prove fingernail biting time for a Welsh nation.

Here goes at one possible scenario, anyway... joining hosts Russia in next year’s finals from nine qualifying groups.

The group winners each go through automatically, with eight runners-up contesting the play-offs to determine the other four teams.

One runner-up misses out altogether. This will be based on points gained from matches, but discarding the team that finishes sixth –in Wales’ case most likely to be Moldova.

That is because at the time of the draw, groups H and I had one fewer side. Kosovo and Gibraltar have since been brought in, but UEFA say the regulation remains unchanged.

So discounting wins over Moldova, and taking into account lots of drawn games, it could be the side finishing second in Group D proves the unlucky one. However, we just don’t know at this stage. SERBIA and Ireland are joint top at the halfway point –and deservedly so – with 11 points apiece.

Then come Wales, one win and four draws, on seven points. Austria are level with Wales, with Georgia on two points and Moldova on one. GOING to Serbia, scene of a 6-1 thumping last time out, was always going to be Wales’ toughest fixture. It just got a whole lot harder again, given the suspension of Gareth Bale.

We’ve seen this before with Wales, mind. There used to be a time when the mantra was ‘Get the ball to Ryan Giggs,’ just as these days it’s ‘Give it to Gareth.’

Giggs then had to miss a home qualifier with Belarus and suddenly Mark Hughes’ players dazzled without their talisman, producing their best football of that World Cup 2002 campaign and winning 1-0.

Hughes was asked afterwards if in Giggs’ absence the other players suddenly accepted more responsibility. He didn’t like the question, but the truth is they HAD to.

That will be the case in Belgrade without Bale, but it’s a harder challenge, of course, and Wales are likely to come up short. They’ll pack the defence, be disciplined and resolute, but will probably lose to a team that have become our nemesis.

The worry for Wales isn’t just Serbia and Ireland, but the fact Austria are becoming rejuvenated.

They have really punched below their weight to date and could well get a draw in Dublin. TO be honest the Austria game could go either way. There is some real talent in that Austrian team that hasn’t really come to the fore yet in these qualifiers, but should in the secondhalf of the campaign.

However, we’re going to look at this one positively. A capacity crowd at Cardiff City Stadium and Wales roared on to one of those Bale-inspired 1-0 triumphs.

That would rekindle Welsh hopes, particularly if we have lost in Serbia.

Ireland have developed a knack down the years of going to countries such as Georgia and winning and may well do again. But these Georgians are no mugs and will fancy their chances of a draw.

As for Serbia, Moldova at home is as shoo-in a three points as they are going to have in qualifying. They could well be marching clear at the top by this stage. WALES don’t have fond experiences of going to Moldova, with Mike Smith’s Class of 1994 embarrassingly losing there.

Nor do Wales win back-to-back games from double-headers that often. But surely this side, that reached the Euro semi-finals, can win a fixture like this? If they don’t they can forget any World Cup dreams. Full stop.

It will probably be tight and tense, though. Wales don’t normally do easy games – not away from home, anyway.

Expect Austria to overcome the Georgians in Vienna. As for the two group leaders, what price yet another draw? WALES have already slipped up at home to the Georgians – they were fortuitous to get a draw in that game – and there is no guarantee they will win in Tbilisi.

Ireland should comfortably dispose of Moldova in Dublin to put themselves right towards the brink of qualifying.

Austria will have to beat Serbia in Vienna to have any hope of keeping their own prospects for Russia going. They are more than capable of win-