Lib Dems aiming to return Cardiff Central to orange

THERE hasn’t been a lot to shout about recently if you’re a Lib Dem.

Joining the Tories in Westminster in 2010 was a disaster for the party.

It was reflected in both the 2015 Westminster vote where the number of Lib Dem MPs fell from 57 to just eight and then the following year when Kirsty Williams was the sole Lib Dem survivor after a wipe out in the Assembly elections.

However, analysis by election experts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher suggests that the party is due a resurgency in May’s elections and could gain around 100 seats.

In Cardiff, that renewed sense of optimism in the Lib Dem camp is ringing true.

This year, they go into the election with a new leader, Cathays Councillor Elizabeth Clark who recently replaced Judith Woodman, and with a potential changing of the guard.

A number of long-standing councillors are standing down but several who lost their seats in 2012 may come back if the voters are kind next week.

Bill Kelloway, who has served the greater Penylan area for almost 30 consecutive years, and his ward colleague Tricia Burfoot are both leaving.

All the Pentwyn councillors, Coun Woodman, Paul Chaundy and Keith Hyde, are all standing down and neither Kate Lloyd nor David Rees will stand again in Cyncoed.

The party’s best chance is in the Cardiff Central constituency where, before the 2012 election, it held all 20 seats.

In that election, they lost all four in Plasnewydd, three in Cathays, one in Adamsdown – but some in the group think they can take all 20 back come May 4.

The General Election two years ago might have been a big win for Labour but the Assembly election was much closer and recent opinion polls have not been good for Labour.

They are hoping that their by-election victory in Plasnewydd in 2016 is indicative of a changing mood. Then Robin Rea took back one of the seats Labour had won.

Former leader Rodney Berman, former Assembly member John Dixon and two former councillors Wendy Congreve and Asghar Ali are all hoping to resume their roles as councillors.

The party says its candidates have found the tone from voters has changed.

No longer is the only topic the doomed coalition with the Tories and the party’s failure to stand by its promises to students, but they say it is back to the bread and butter issues – the ones where Lib Dems come into their own.

Within the ranks, there is no immediate panic about the loss of long-standing councillors.

While they accept that some voters would have opted purely for a name, the party are confident it is their colours and impact as a group which will be reflected.

They may feel confident in Cardiff Central but there are other seats in which they also have hopes.

Llandaff was a surprise when two Lib Dems, Kirsty Davies-Warner and Gareth Aubrey, took the seat in 2008. They both kept their seats in 2012 but will both stand down this year which makes the seat a trickier fight.

The Lib Dems hope for gains in Splott, where they last won a seat in 2008, and to build on the momentum that departing councillor Ed Bridges has built in Gabalfa where the group currently holds both seats.

The Lib Dems say they are no longer getting flack over Nick Clegg but are revelling in the complaints over Corbyn.

One Lib Dem campaigner told me: “I’ve been on the doorsteps since Christmas and it’s feeling a lot, lot better than the last election. The Labour vote is very flaky.

“Most people are moaning about council services and when you ask if they’re Labour they say ‘Yes, maybe.’ They’re not impressed with Corbyn.

“What happened in 2012, was that a lot of our voters stayed at home, I suspect that’s what’s going to happen, people just aren’t motivated for Labour”.

Just like Plaid in Cardiff West and the Tories in Cardiff North, the Lib Dems feel their core focus on one part of the city gives them an advantage over a Labour group fighting battles across the city.

Labour are having to split their resources – while the orange clad army get to pick their battles in one, huge and crucial area.