Wales sees surge of support for a ‘soft’ Brexit – poll

MORE than twice as many people in Wales now say keeping free access to the European Single Market is more important to them than restricting the right of people from EU countries to work in the UK, an exclusive poll found.

A survey conducted for the South Wales Echo by Beaufort Research has shown a significant strengthening of support for the kind of “soft Brexit” championed by First Minister Carwyn Jones but rejected by Theresa May.

Those surveyed were given two options: keeping free access to the Single Market, so that the UK can continue to sell goods and services without incurring tariffs or other obstacles to trade, while allowing citizens from all EU countries to work in the UK; or restricting the right of people from EU countries to work in the UK, but not having free access to the Single Market. Some 60% backed the first option, with 27% favouring the second and 13% saying they don’t know.

Mr Jones has argued that retaining “unfettered access” to the Single Market is vital for Welsh exporters and the strength of the economy. Without such a deal, tariffs would be imposed post-Brexit on goods and services exported from the UK to EU countries.

On top of that, there would be additional bureaucratic burdens like the need to demonstrate the origin of each component in manufactured goods at the time they are exported.

Mr Jones has repeatedly argued that such hurdles would be likely to drive investors away and could result in the relocation of businesses from Wales to EU countries.

The First Minister has, however, also acknowledged that many people who voted Leave in the June 2016 referendum did so because they were concerned by the levels of EU migration into the UK.

EU leaders have made it clear that if the UK is to retain unfettered access to the Single Market, we must allow EU citizens to live and work here.

In a White Paper published jointly with Plaid Cymru last January, the Welsh Government argued that the UK’s position on freedom of movement for future EU migrants should be modified so that only those with a pre-existing job offer should be entitled to it.

Mr Jones believes such a modification could allow the UK to retain unfettered access to the Single Market.

Our new poll shows that more affluent people in Wales (in the ABC1 socio-economic groups) and younger people (aged 16-34) are most likely to favour a soft Brexit (at 66% and 60% respectively), as are those living in Cardiff and South East Wales (at 62%).

Those most likely to want a hard Brexit are less affluent people (C2DEs) and the over 55s (at 33% and 35% respectively), as are people living in the Valleys, West South Wales and Mid & West Wales (at 32-33%).

But in all categories, more people thought retaining free access to the Single Market was more important than restricting the right of EU citizens to work here.

In the Valleys there has been a noticeable shift from last November, when 33% were more concerned about restricting migration than keeping free access to the Single Market against 52% who thought keeping Single Market access was more important. Now the figures are 28% and 60% respectively.

A Welsh Government spokeswoman said: “This shows the majority of people in Wales share our view that the UK’s top priority must be protecting the Welsh economy and jobs by ensuring full and unfettered access to the Single Market.

“The Prime Minister has no mandate for a hard Brexit and continuing to push this agenda in spite of public opinion and the support of many in her cabinet could be devastating for Wales. The UK Government needs to start listening to the people and aim to deliver a successful Brexit that works for all regions and nations of the UK. When the First Minister meets Michel Barnier [the EU’s top Brexit negotiator] shortly, he will be arguing for an outcome to the Brexit negotiations which safeguards Welsh jobs and the Welsh economy, that will work for the whole UK and which acknowledges the legitimate concerns of the other member-states of the EU.”

Fieldwork for Beaufort’s Omnibus survey took place between June 12 and June 25, 2017. A total of 1,008 interviews were completed and analysed to achieve a representative sample of Wales’ adult population.