Brexit study shows deep divisions still exist among voters

DEEP divisions still exist in Wales between Remain and Leave voters and no consensus is emerging among the public on the Brexit process, according to research.

A major academic survey of the public shows people who voted in the 2016 referendum are still deeply divided over Brexit.

Not only are they divided about what they want to happen, but also over what they think will be the consequences of Brexit and even over how the process should be managed.

The study, which has been carried out by Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, is the most detailed examination of what the Welsh public think about Brexit, more than a year after the referendum where Wales voted to leave the EU.

The majority of Leave voters (78%) would like to see the UK regain full control over how Britain is governed and who can live in the UK, even if that means not having a free trade relationship with the EU.

By contrast, some 63% of Remain voters either wish for Britain to remain in the EU after all (41%) or to retain close ties through associate membership (22%).

The majority of Leavers (70%) expect to see immigration fall, whereas only 30% of Remainers believe immigration will reduce – 63% of them expect it to remain about the same.

And whether there will be more or less money spent on the NHS, only 11% of Leave voters thought that this would fall, compared to 50% of remain voters. Very few Remainers (6%) believe more money will be spent on the health service.

The Wales Governance Centre research also included the first detailed qualitative study of workingclass leave voters in the South Wales Valleys.

The Valleys have been large recipients of EU Structural Fund aid in recent times – yet all of them voted for leave, most by substantial margins.

The focus groups also found there remains substantial hostility among many of these voters towards immigration and the statement that Wales is a net beneficiary from the EU budget was treated with significant scepticism.

Professor Roger Scully, who analysed the findings, said: “This research provides us with the most detailed understanding yet of public thinking about Brexit in Wales.

“The picture it paints is not a positive one.

“There is little sign of public consensus emerging on Brexit: we are not coming together, as the Prime Minister has suggested, but continue to be deeply divided.

“Remainers and Leavers from June last year not only want different things from Brexit – they also expect different things to result from the UK leaving the EU.

“And they even have different views about the political process – about how Brexit should be done.”

The survey was conducted by YouGov for Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre. Some 3,014 respondents were interviewed, via the internet, between June 23 and July 6.