Buckle up for another Six Nations rollercoaster... who can handle weight of expectation in 2018?
ARE you sitting comfortably? Or are you in the brace position ahead of the visit of Gregor Townsend’s Scotland to the Principality Stadium this afternoon?
No-one in the Wales cockpit is suggesting anyone should panic.
No-one is suggesting anyone has borrowed the famed line from the stewardess in Airplane! You know, when she said: “There’s no reason to become alarmed, and we hope you enjoy the rest of your flight. By the way, is there anyone on board who knows how to fly a plane?”
Even so, there have been hints that unless extreme caution is exercised there could be a spot of turbulence ahead and even the odd mountain top clipped.
Attack coach Rob Howley installed the Scots as “favourites” against Wales and said they had been playing great rugby, while goal-kicking chief Neil Jenkins described them as “very talented and unpredictable”, adding that Wales needed to be prepared for anything.
And head coach Warren Gatland has also applauded Townsend’s team, observing: “Potentially, they are serious challengers for the Six Nations.” What is there to say? Every coach relishes his team being written up as underdogs. And it may be that Gatland will have quite enjoyed former Wales captain Gwyn Jones’s prediction that “Scotland will sneak a win in Cardiff”, as well as Austin Healey talking of Scotland potentially being involved in a three-horse race for the Six Nations title with England and Ireland, adding: “This is the perfect time to be playing Wales.” Let’s see. Wales are missing five Lions behind in Jonathan Davies, Liam Williams, George North, Dan Biggar and Rhys Webb and a complete Lions Test back row in Sam Warburton, Dan Lydiate and Taulupe Faletau.
It explains the bout of collective head-scratching among Ospreys supporters at the omission of Justin Tipuric from the starting line-up.
He is a Test Lion, after all, who has played more than 50 times for his country. Consistently, he has proven for the Ospreys he can do the physical stuff as well as the flashy stuff. Last summer, respected judges in New Zealand were impressed by him. Yet he will have to bide his time before joining the fray against the Scots.
James Davies’ form for the Scarlets has also counted for only so much.
But Gatland presumably has a plan and the suspicion is that it involves trying to use the likes of Ross Moriarty and Josh Navidi to carry directly and strongly behind a front five under orders to do a number on the visitors, especially at the scrums. Ah, the scrums. Cut to 1987, when a small knot of supporters from Maesteg arrived belatedly in an Edinburgh hotel to watch Wales take on Scotland, having earlier failed to find a way into Murrayfield without tickets.
They cheered and chanted loudly as the Old Parish’s then prop, Peter Francis, an excellent player at club level, ran on for his Test debut.
But the afternoon proved calamitous for Francis and indeed for the Welsh scrum against a Scottish eight in which props David Sole and Iain Milne reigned supreme. Sole, in particular, dished out a scrummaging lesson, watched by the increasingly subdued lads from the Llynfi Valley.
It transpired that amid the carnage referee Keith Lawrence had said to Wales lock Bob Norster: “I’m not happy with your tight-head prop.”
Norster’s reply? “You’re not happy? How do you think I feel?”
The surprise was Wales lost that game by just six points, given the setpiece smashing they received.
But lose they did, confirming once again the old adage that if you haven’t got a scrum you haven’t got a hope in hell of winning.
Have Scotland got a scrum this weekend?
They seem to think so, with head coach Townsend saying: “We believe we’ve got a really strong scrummaging unit, with two players that can scrum and also add impact off the bench.”
No surprise there: Townsend was never going to come up with his best Private Frazer impression and lament: “We’re doomed! Doomed, I tell you!”
But these are the facts: the visitors are missing hookers Ross Ford, Fraser Brown and George Turner, while props Zander Fagerson, WP Nel, Darryl Marfo, Allan Dell and Al Dickinson are all injured. And the tight-head Simon Berghan is banned.
Jon Welsh, who features at No.3, last started a Test in 2015, and Gordon Reid has begun only one in 10 months.
However you paint it, that is some casualty list at the sharp end.
And, if they are to win, Wales need to take advantage of it, with their allScarlets front row to the fore.
The hosts have powerful scrummagers in reserve, too, in the shape of Wyn Jones and Tomas Francis.
This, then, is a strength-in-depth challenge for both sides.
Wales opted not to risk George North and Hallam Amos behind, but they do run with Moriarty up front, despite the big man having played just three games in nine months after leaving the Lions tour early with a back problem.
No doubt Gatland will have told him: “Give me absolutely everything for 50 minutes to an hour. Be ferocious and physical, as you were against England last year. Leave nothing out there.”
Is Moriarty match-fit for such a challenge? We are about to find out. But don’t underestimate how difficult it is for a player short of gametime to play an international rugby match.
As Owen Sheers notes in his book Calon: “In the course of a single game (international rugby players) will be expected to run like sprinters, lift like weightlifters, kick with the skill of footballers and endure hits like Ultimate Fighters.
“They have to be... Land Rovers as well as Ferraris.”
It helps to be match-sharp, then.
Gatland will want Wales to improve their reputation as poor starters which has seen them post just one win over anyone but Italy in the last eight years of the Six Nations. And even when they beat the Azzurri first up last season, there were complaints from Colwyn Bay to Carmarthen about the performance.
Start slowly this time and there could be trouble ahead, with England to play at Twickenham in round two and Ireland to be faced at the Aviva Stadium in round three.
There are other questions. Is it a great idea to pack the side with so many players from one club or region?
It worked when 13 Ospreys started against England in 2008, but defeats stacked up when Ron Waldron tried
the same drill with Neath players in the early 1990s, albeit Welsh rugby was way off the pace generally at the time.
As a rule, the best players should be in the side. Anything else risks fostering resentment and even division.
That said, there is a case for believing most, if not all, of the 10 Scarlets picked to face the Scots deserve their places, having been part of the best side in Wales by some distance over the past year.
Even so, Wales particularly need half-backs Rhys Patchell and Gareth Davies to demonstrate high-level control. Both of them can run, but can they run a match at Test level? It matters. There are questions, too, for the Scots.
Can they win on the road against anyone bar Italy in the Six Nations? To be serious contenders for the title they need to answer that one in the affirmative.
Can they reproduce the hightempo game they carried off so superbly during the autumn? Everything about them was fast in November: line-outs, scrums, tapped penalties, passing, line-breaks, possibly even their bus journey to Murrayfield.
Even the All Blacks struggled to cope. Stuart Hogg, Huw Jones, Finn Russell, Ali Price, John Barclay and Hamish Watson all played inspired rugby.
But the big question for Townsend’s players is whether they can handle expectation.
Listen to one Edward Jones, coach of England: “It’s different when you go in as underdogs than when you go in expected to win and play with that panache.”
The heavy Scarlets influence behind should ensure the Welsh backs play with fluency.
But Wales also need forward ballcarriers like Moriarty and Navidi to crash over the gain-line to help secure the quick ball that fuels attacking rugby.
They look marginal favourites to prevail.
Whatever, someone is going to receive a reality check in Cardiff.
Wales just have to ensure it isn’t them.