Cardiff put on alert the European Union
POTENTIAL food, medicine and fuel shortages, disruption at ports, and civil unrest as a result of a nodeal Brexit could result in severe disruptions to Cardiff and its ability to provide services, a council study says.
Cardiff council has published an impact assessment looking at what would happen in the event of the UK leaving the European Union without a trade deal.
The report says it is difficult for the council to make any decision on the likelihood of any of these risks – but says the authority should be aware of the possible consequences of a no-deal Brexit.
Warnings about shortages of food, medicine and fuel, disruption at ports and civil unrest were made by the UK Government in a series of technical notices released in August.
The study found 6,676 EU nationals are working in Cardiff – making up 15.2% of the city’s wholesale and retail trade, 13.1% of health and social care and 11.1% of the education sector and accounting for 3.3% of the city’s overall workforce.
The assessment says although there is no data immediately available on the number of nonUK EU workers employed by Cardiff council “it is not anticipated that Brexit will have a major impact on staff directly employed by the council, based on the assessment of operational managers”.
Health and social care and construction are the two sectors in Cardiff where recruitment issues could be made worse with any potential restrictions on free labour, the study found.
The report says: “In the absence of detailed organisation data the council can assume, based on the extrapolation of city-wide figures, that around 13% of the adult social care workforce’s participation in the labour market may be influenced by Brexit.
“If Brexit was to create a less favourable environment for EU workers there is potential for shortfalls in the adult social care workforce. A tightening labour market could also result in wages being competed upwards, meaning further cost pressures in the sector.”
The council is also warning of increasing costs threatening its capital investments as a result of a no-deal Brexit.
Cardiff council currently has two projects supported by around £1.2m in funding through the European Social Fund – Inspire2Achieve and Communities4Work, which help people back into work.
There is also significant EU funding in projects that will impact on Cardiff, including approved funding for the compound semiconductor businesses cluster and the proposed South Wales Metro.
In 2016 some 61% of Wales’ £14.6bn goods exports went to the EU while in 2015 a total of 35% of the country’s £1.7bn services exports went there.
Cardiff is in the top five British cities most reliant on EU markets, with 61% of Cardiff exports going to EU countries.
A Welsh Government report found “it is very unlikely that, in the short term, free trade deals with other countries – even the USA – could compensate for the loss of full and unfettered access to the Single Market”, adding: “Any such suggestion would need to be supported by convincing evidence. Evidence we have yet to see.”
The council’s report says: “It is therefore important that businesses in Cardiff are supported to develop greater international trade and investment opportunities, particularly from emerging markets”.
If a no-deal Brexit still looks likely by November the UK Government will release 12 detailed risk assessments to all public bodies so they can start to plan for the