Labour ‘would lose two seats if a General Election was held now’

LABOUR would lose two Westminster seats in Wales to the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru would lose Ceredigion to the Liberal Democrats, if a general election was held now, according to a new poll.

With Labour down to 42% of the vote (down two percentage points since the last YouGov poll for ITV Wales and Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre in July) and the Conservatives on 33% (up two points), the Tories would pick up Wrexham and Vale of Clwyd.

Plaid Cymru is down three percentage points on 10%, the Liberal Democrats are up two points on 7%, Ukip is up one point at 4% and other parties remain on 3%.

Overall Labour would be on 26 seats (down two), the Conservatives 10 (up two), Plaid Cymru three (down one) and the Liberal Democrats one (up one).

At a National Assembly election, Labour would be on 38% in first-pastthe-post seats (no change), the Conservatives 28% (no change), Plaid Cymru 19% (down two percentage points), the Liberal Democrats 6% (no change), Ukip 6% (no change) and others 3% (no change).

On a uniform national swing, the Conservatives would gain Vale of Clwyd and Vale of Glamorgan from Labour – the only seats predicted to change hands in this section of the ballot.

The regional list votes would see Labour on 37% (no change), the Conservatives on 26% (up one point), Plaid Cymru 18% (down four points), the Liberal Democrats 6% (up one point), Ukip 5% (no change) and others 9% (up two points).

Overall, this would see Labour on 29 seats (25 constituency, 4 regional), Conservative 18 seats (8 constituency, 10 regional), Plaid Cymru 11 seats (6 constituency, 5 regional), Ukip 1 seat (1 regional) and Liberal Democrats 1 seat (1 constituency).

Professor Roger Awan-Scully, of Cardiff University, said: “Such a result would clearly leave Labour as still very much the dominant party in the Assembly.

“But it would also be by far the best ever outcome for the Welsh Conservatives, putting them in a clear second place.

“Overall, the new Welsh Political Barometer poll is in line with recent Britain-wide polling, showing broad stability in support levels for the main parties.

“Labour has continued to lose a little ground since its high point after the Corbyn surge in last year’s General Election. But in Wales Labour remain well ahead.

“The UK Government’s Brexit travails have not yet had any notable negative impact on support for the Conservatives.”

■ The poll had a sample of 1,031 Welsh adults and was carried out by YouGov from October 30 to November 2.