The ‘risks’ that face South Wales – and how they will be dealt with

It’s always a good idea to have a plan ready if the worst happens – but what kind of risks do we really face in South Wales? And how likely are they to occur? Officials have already got it covered, as Christie Bannon reports

FROM floods to droughts, an outbreak of an infectious disease or even a large toxic chemical release, every possible risk has been listed by a body called the South Wales Local Resilience Forum.

It has produced a “community risk register”, which ranks emergency situations according to how likely they are to occur and the risk they pose.

Each risk is ranked from “very high”, which would cause mass disruption, to “low”, which would have considerably fewer repercussions:

Low – these risks are both unlikely to occur and not significant in their impact.

Medium – these risks are less significant, but may cause upset and inconvenience in the short term.

High – these risks are classed as significant. They may have a high or low likelihood of occurrence, but their potential consequences are sufficiently serious to warrant appropriate consideration after those risks classed as “very high”.

Very high – these are classed as primary or critical risks requiring immediate attention. They may have a high or low likelihood of occurrence, but their potential consequences are such that they must be treated as a high priority.

Speaking about the register, in a foreword, Angela Stephenson, head of emergency preparedness, resilience, and response at Cardiff and Vale University Health Board, and Jeremy Vaughan, assistant chief constable of South Wales Police, state: “The need for the register came about after the introduction of the Civil Contingencies Act in 2004.

“This said that emergency responders must assess the risk of emergencies happening, to use those assessments to help plan for those emergencies and to prepare business continuity plans, so that they can continue to provide a response.

“The register, compiled by Resilience Forum partners, provides a list of potential hazards, the likelihood of those hazards occurring in the next five years and the risk associated with them.

“The fact that we have included a particular hazard does not mean that we believe that that hazard will definitely happen, or if it did, it would be at that scale.

“The register only covers natural or accidental events (hazards) rather than threats (deliberate or malicious events). This does not mean we do not consider threats within our risk assessment work, but as the information supporting them could be sensitive, specific details are not made available.

“You can be assured, however, that we are focused on preparing for the consequences of any emergency regardless of cause.

“Plans attempt to set out generic capabilities that can be used in any emergency situation; and we are actively engaged in a continued programme of planning, training and exercising to mitigate the common and unique consequences of hazards and threats.

“The South Wales Local Resilience Forum will ensure that the register is reviewed regularly and updated. Efforts will continue to ensure that any multiagency response is as co-ordinated and timely as possible, and that the primary objectives of saving life and reducing harm can be achieved.”

Here is each risk to the people of South Wales, ranked:

Very high risk

■ Flooding: major coastal and tidal flooding affecting parts of more than two UK regions;

■ Flooding: severe fluvial flooding affecting more than two geographical regions; ■ Influenza-type disease (pandemic); and

■ Total failure of GB’s National Electricity Transmission Network.

High risk

■ Major contamination incident with widespread implications for the food chain;

■ Low temperatures and heavy snow;

■ Emerging infectious diseases;

■ Disruption to Regional Electricity Distribution or Transmission Network/System;

■ Heat wave; and

■ Severe space weather (e.g. geomagnetic storms or solar radiation storms).

Medium risk

■ Fire or explosion at a gas LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) or LNG (liquefied natural gas) terminal (or associated onshore feedstock pipeline) or flammable gas storage site;

■ Fire or explosion at an oil refinery;

■ Fire or explosion at a range of industrial sites including fuel distribution sites or sites storing flammable and/or toxic liquids in atmospheric pressure storage