And the winner is... the course of Rugby World Cup predicted
THE former football manager and pundit Ron Atkinson memorably declared: “I’m not going to make a prediction – it could go either way.”
Where’s the great man when you need him most?
The Rugby World Cup is almost upon us and the whole world and his lover are suggesting it could be the most open yet.
New Zealand are favourites in the bookmakers’ eyes, but what’s new? “If they play the World Cup for a thousand years, the All Blacks will always be favourites to win it,” former Australia hooker Phil Kearns once declared.
That doesn’t mean they will win it, of course.
So how is the tournament in Japan likely to pan out?
MARK ORDERS gazes into his crystal ball...
POOL A
Ireland, Scotland, Japan, Russia, Samoa
IRELAND’S dominant second-half show against Wales last time out, when they placed a metaphorical boot on the opposition’s throat and declined to remove it, saw them reassert themselves as serious Webb Ellis Cup contenders.
They are comfortably the strongest side in this pool.
Scotland and Japan will contest second spot and while it wouldn’t be a complete shock for the tournament hosts to prevail, the abundance of Glasgow Warriors in the Scots’ team, allied to input from the likes of John Barclay, Blade Thomson, WP Nel, Stuart McNally, Finn Russell and Sean Maitland, should see Gregor Townsend’s team safely through.
Prediction: Ireland (group winners) and Scotland to qualify. POOL B
New Zealand, South Africa, Italy, Namibia, Canada
LET’S be bold and say it’s the All Blacks and Springboks to qualify from this one.
Indeed, let’s bet the farm and everything else on it.
They are both certs to go through, but the altogether more challenging question is who will top the group.
Barely two years ago, New Zealand caned South Africa 57-0 in Albany.
Since then. the pair have met four times and there hasn’t been more than two points between them in any game. They drew in Wellington at the end of July but what sticks in the mind that day is the belief of the visiting players, with zero fear of the men in black.
Always, that’s the first step to beating them.
Prediction: South Africa (group winners) and New Zealand to qualify.
POOL C
England, France, Argentina, USA, Tonga
ENGLAND had an impressive summer, powering through Wales at Twickenham and trampling all over Ireland at the same venue. They have an excellent line-out, with Maro Itoje and George Kruis to the fore, while Tom Curry and Sam Underhill offer mobility, physicality and breakdown menace.
The battle for runners-up spot in the group will be between France and Argentina.
The French won three out of four warm-up games, including a 32-3 triumph over Scotland, but remain a team you wouldn’t bet your neighbour’s house on, let alone your own. Even so, Argentina have lost nine in a row and the pieces have a habit of falling into place for France at World Cups.
Prediction: England (group winners) and France to qualify.
POOL D
Australia, Wales, Georgia, Fiji, Uruguay
WHICH Australia will turn up in Japan? Will it be the fired-up, vibrant team that gave New Zealand a 47-26 seeing-to barely a month ago? Or will it be the dispirited bunch who barely offered an argument a week later when the real All Blacks turned up and dished out a 36-0 thrashing?
They have big threats in David Pocock, Michael Hooper and Samu Kerevi, but their form has been unconvincing and Israel Folau is a loss.
There again, Wales didn’t exactly earn perfect marks for their efforts in the summer warm-up games, with Tauluple Faletau and Gareth Anscombe badly missed.
The challenge for Warren Gatland will be to convince his players they are potential World Cup winners after their sticky recent games, but there is no-ne better in the game than reprogramming minds than the New Zealander.
Wales’ organisation and defensive grit, plus the presence of worldclass players led by Alun Wyn Jones up front and Liam Williams and Jonathan Davies behind, could just see them through as group winners, but Fiji could pack a sting and are capable of frightening both Wales
and the Wallabies.
It’s Wales to prevail in what could be a tight group, then, but only if they rediscover form, and rediscover it quickly.
Prediction: Wales (group winners and Australia to make the last eight.
QUARTER-FINALS
QF 1: Winner Pool C (England) v Runner-up Pool D (Australia) MAKO Vunipola should be fit by the time of the last-eight matches and he is some player. England have had Australia’s number in recent years, with six wins against them on the spin since the last World Cup, and will be fancied to again get the job done. Prediction: England.
QF 2: Winner Pool B (South Africa) v Runner-up Pool A (Scotland) THE Scots came within a disputed decision of reaching the semi-finals in 2015 – Craig Joubert may or may not still be running after his award of the late penalty to Australia which smithereened Scottish hearts in the last eight – but if they come up against South Africa they will be hard pushed to cope with the sheer power, depth and all-round excellence of the Springboks.
Prediction: South Africa.
QF 3: Winner Pool D (Wales) v Runner-up Pool C (France)
WALES owe the French after the dramatic events in Auckland in 2011 when Les Blues won a gripping semifinal remembered for Sam Warburton’s sending-off. They would be expected to avenge that setback, and would be bitterly disappointed not to do so.
Prediction: Wales. QF 4: Pool A (Ireland) v Runner-up Pool B (New Zealand).
CAN Ireland break through their lasteight glass ceiling at World Cups?
They have never gone beyond the quarter-finals and it would be a surprise if they did so this time, because they will be up against either New Zealand or South Africa barring Italy, Russia or Nambia performing the rugby equivalent of turning water into wine in Pool B.
Ireland have beaten the All Blacks in recent times, but the Kiwis could have Brodie Retallick back by this stage and with their full complement would expect to do a job on the men in green.
Prediction: New Zealand.
SEMI-FINALS
SF 1: Winner QF 1 (England) v Winner QF 2 (South Africa)
IF this one happens it will be a hugely physical affair between two teams who will believe they can win the World Cup.
England have shown, against Wales and Scotland in the Six Nations, they can flatter to deceive and lose concentration. Do that against the Springboks and it would be another disappointment for them. Rassie Erasmus’ team just look a serious force. Prediction: South Africa .
SF 2: Winner QF 3 (Wales) v Winner QF 4 (New Zealand)
HAD Wales met New Zealand six months ago, after they’d just banked a Six Nations Grand Slam and had momentum and belief, then they might have fancied their chances of finally ending their long wait for a win over the All Blacks.
But since then they have found the going tougher, not helped by injuries.
New Zealand have failed to triumph in four out of their last 13 games, with defeats against South Africa, Ireland and Australia and a draw against the Springboks, but they can still play at pace.
Under those circumstances it would be hard to see Wales stopping them.
Prediction: New Zealand.
THIRD-PLACE PLAY-OFF England v Wales
IT’S a long way from home and it’s 2-1 to Wales in results between the pair this year.
But what could decide this is the depth in each squad.
Wales have acutely felt the loss key players and can’t afford to lose many more.
Maybe England will just have the cover to see them home in a match no country enjoys playing in. Prediction: England
FINAL
South Africa v New Zealand
A strong case could be made for either of these two being crowned world champions.
But the Springboks may just have the edge, with the game’s best scrumhalf in Faf de Klerk, the best hooker in Malcolm Marx, the most formidable scrum, the best rush defence (take a bow the outstanding Damian de Allende) and arguably the top blindside flanker in the world in PieterSteph du Toit.
Add in other stellar performers such as Duane Vermeulen, Siya Kolisi, Willie Le Roux, Handre Pollard and Eben Etzebeth and you have a heady brew. From here, they look the side to beat, All Blacks or no All Blacks. Winners: South Africa.