Tories open poll lead over Labour
THE Conservatives have opened up a four-point lead in Wales in a general election poll and could win nine seats from Labour, a new poll suggests.
The YouGov Welsh Political Barometer poll for ITV Wales and Cardiff University also suggests that the Liberal Democrats could lose the Brecon & Radnorshire seat they won from the Tories in August, but win back Ceredigion, which they lost to Plaid Cymru in 2017.
The poll shows the Conservatives on 29% (up 5 since the last poll in July), Labour on 25% (up 3), the Liberal Democrats on 16% (no change), the Brexit Party 14% (down 4), Plaid Cymru 12% (down 3), Greens 4% (up 1) and Others 1% (no change).
Prof Roger Awan-Scully, of Cardiff University, said: “After the splintering of support for the two main UK parties in the first half of 2019, our new poll appears to show something of a move back to the old duopoly.
“In particular, the Welsh Conservatives will be delighted to see their support move up five percentage points, after a seven-point climb in the last poll from the depths to which they sank around the time of the European election in late May. Much of that Conservative improvement appears to have come at the direct expense of the Brexit Party.
“Whatever his political opponents think of his conduct, Boris Johnson’s political strategy appears to be paying some electoral dividends.
“After hitting an all-time low in July, Welsh Labour will also be relieved to see their support edge up by three points.”
What the poll shows above all, though, are the stark divisions in Wales – as across most of Britain – on the issue of Brexit.
Among 2016 Remain voters, the Conservatives are in a distant fourth place, while the Brexit Party wins literally zero per cent support; among 2016 Leavers, the Conservatives win nearly half of all support (49%) and the Brexit Party the bulk of the remainder (another 29%).
On a uniform national swing, Labour would win 18 seats, the Conservatives 17, Plaid Cymru 4 and the Liberal Democrats 1.
The poll projects the Tories to capture Alyn and Deeside, Bridgend, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Delyn, Gower, Newport West, Vale of Clwyd, and Wrexham from Labour.
This is despite the new poll showing Conservative support to have fallen by more than four percentage points since the 2017 general election. Labour support has simply fallen much further.
Labour’s 18 projected seats would be the first time they had failed to win an outright majority of Welsh seats in a general election since before the war.
Polling figures for a Senedd election – next due in 2021 – show Labour back in the lead after being overtaken by Plaid Cymru in July.
The poll puts Labour on 25% in the constituency section of the poll (up 4 since July); the Conservatives on 23% (up 4) Plaid Cymru 22% (down 2), the Brexit Party 15% (down 4), the Liberal Democrats 11% (down 1), the Greens 4% (no change).
In the regional list section of the poll Labour would lead on 23% (+4), the Conservatives would be on 22% (+4), Plaid Cymru 21% (-2), the Brexit Party: 14% (-3), the Liberal Democrats 10% (-2), the Greens 5% (+1) and Others 5% (-2).
Prof Awan-Scully said: “Our new poll indicates that we are currently on course for a rather different type of politics in what is soon to be known as Senedd Cymru/the Welsh Parliament: a chamber where every party has fewer than one-third of the seats and where there are five significant parties, with the Liberal Democrats back in play.”
■ YouGov interviewed a nationally representative sample of 1,032 adults in Wales online between October 10 and 14, 2019.