‘WE ARE PAST THE PEAK’
PRIME MINISTER CLAIMS UK HAS NOW PASSED COVID-19 OUTBREAK PEAK WALES’ TOP DOCTOR SAYS WE HAVE ‘SQUASHED THE CURVE’
THE peak of coronavirus cases in Wales has come “much earlier” than anticipated, Wales’ chief medical officer confirmed yesterday – but he warned “there is a long way to go” in the fight.
Dr Frank Atherton said the way Wales had “squashed the curve” on the outbreak was down to government measures and the fact that people had stuck to them.
His comments were later echoed for the UK by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who said: “I can confirm today that for the first time we are past the peak of this disease.”
The PM was speaking at his first daily Downing Street briefing since being discharged from hospital after his own battle with Covid-19.
The comments from both ends of the M4 came as:
■ A total of 26,771 people have now died in the UK with coronavirus, an increase of 674 in 24 hours;
■ The death toll for patients who were diagnosed with Covid-19 in Wales reached 908 after 22 more fatalities were announced yesterday;
■ Public Health Wales confirmed 183 more people have tested positive for the virus in the nation, to bring the overall total to 9,812;
■ Captain Tom Moore celebrated his 100th birthday at home with his family after a whirlwind few weeks in which he has been elevated to national hero status and raised more than £32m for the NHS; and
■ US intelligence agencies concluded Covid-19 was “not man-made or genetically modified”.
Dr Atherton predicted at the very start of March, when Wales was seeing its first cases of the infection, that we would see an upsurge in cases in April, a possible peak towards May/June, and a downturn again in July/August.
But speaking yesterday he said: “When we think back to where we were [in early March] it looked like we were on a period of exponential growth.
“We thought the peak would have been into May, June or July – somewhere within that range.
“We talked at the time about ‘flattening the curve’ so that we didn’t exceed the capacity in the NHS.
“In fact our measures in Wales and the UK have done more than flatten the curve. They have absolutely squashed the curve.
“So the numbers are much, much less than we expected and that’s why, we think, the peak has come earlier.”
However, he admitted by flattening the curve there was a risk of a “resurgence” of the virus if restrictions are lifted too soon.
“The modelling suggests that if we did open our measures too early in the UK we could see a second large wave which could continue into the autumn period, which would be really bad news because that’s the time the regular flu virus starts to circulate.
“We honestly do not know if there will be a second, third, or fourth peak but we have to assume at the moment that the disease will come back.”
According to latest NHS figures, the number of patients in hospital with coronavirus in Wales dipped below 1,000 for the first time in more than three weeks on Wednesday.
There were also 101 patients with Covid-19 in hospital intensive care units – the lowest number since the start of April.
And of the 386 critical care beds available more than half (57%) of beds were vacant, with field hospitals across Wales barely being utilised.
When asked about whether it was time to start elective and non-urgent procedures in the Welsh NHS again – based on the fact critical care capacity appears to be managing so well – Dr Atherton said: “It’s one of my biggest worries that there is ‘hidden harm’ in the system.
“There is a discussion now with chief executives in local health boards, and from my perspective medical directors and directors of public health, about how we can ‘reopen’ and rejuvenate the NHS and bring back services which are no longer being provided in the volume that we are used to.”
Dr Atherton added that when lockdown restrictions are eased there would need to be a focus on community surveillance and tracking and tracing of cases.
“We need a much better understanding of how the virus is moving around in our populations and in those closed settings [of hospitals and care homes],” he said.
“We need a clear model on tracking and tracing cases – using a combination of digital means and old-fashioned public health shoe leather and contact tracing.
“We need to watch other countries in how they’re lifting measures.”
He struck a similar note of caution during a virtual meeting of the Assembly’s health committee, when he warned “there is a long way to go” in the fight against coronavirus, adding that moving forward will be “extraordinarily difficult”.
He said the reproduction rate of the virus – the number of new cases linked to a single individual – is now less than one in Wales, meaning that lockdown measures are working.
But the meeting heard that there is little “headroom” for an increase in infections that are likely if such measures are significantly lifted.
“We’re not out of this yet and we have a long way to go,” Dr Atherton said.
“This virus has many surprises and they pop up on a daily basis.
“Getting out of this predicament is extraordinarily difficult.
“It is one that we don’t do alone, we do in concert with our colleagues across the rest of the UK, and we need to continue learning from others.
“The virus is not finished with us yet. We continue to adapt our strategy and our approaches.”
Dr Atherton said the lockdown restrictions had been successful in ensuring the NHS was not overwhelmed but warned that Wales was “not out of the woods yet”.
Dr Rob Orford, Wales’ chief scientific adviser for health, told the meeting that infection levels would increase if lockdown restrictions were significantly lifted.
He warned there was not “a lot of headroom” and said the issue of NHS capacity would need to be considered if there was a rise in the reproduction rate.
“There is no easy way out, there is no easy answer,” Dr Orford said.
“This is going to be a hard-fought battle and we will need to feel our way forwards working with colleagues at a UK level and internationally to find the best ways.”
Dr Orford said measures such as social distancing, hand washing and isolating if people had symptoms were “very, very effective”.
Apps such as the Covid Symptom Tracker will be part of the solution to lifting lockdown, the meeting heard.
“But there is no silver bullet to this problem,” Dr Orford said.
Meanwhile, Dr Atherton revealed the UK Government’s coronavirus scientific advisory group for emergencies (Sage) has not examined the benefits of testing people for Covid-19 when they do not have symptoms.
He was defending Wales’ decision not to follow England in extending its own testing criteria to care home staff and residents regardless whether they have symptoms, saying Sage had “not to my knowledge” looked at the benefits of doing so.
Asked if England’s decision to move further away from Wales and Scotland’s testing plans was a “political decision”, Dr Atherton said: “We’re still trying to reach across to England to understand the exact rationale for the changes they’ve made in various categories, given they’ve made a number of changes.
“Our approach in Wales has consistently been to follow the science, and the science is the science. It’s the same across the four nations. So choices are made based on the interpretation of that science.
“Our approach in Wales has always been clear that we will put patients first and foremost, in terms of testing. That’s where our attention first of all needs to be.”
■ More: Pages 4-11