New cases suggest coronavirus epicentre could be shifting west

EVERY day, figures showing how many cases of coronavirus have been diagnosed in each area of Wales tell a familiar story – with Newport and Cardiff at the epicentre of the nation’s outbreak.

The two cities have both had the densest concentrations of diagnosed coronavirus cases in Wales since the pandemic hit these shores.

Yet this no longer tells the whole story.

It does not tell us where coronavirus is spreading now.

Newport’s outbreak was the first to peak in Wales. Yet latest data suggest that, thanks to lockdown, it is now well past that peak.

It is two months since the first case of Covid-19 was diagnosed in Wales on March 1 – and a lot has changed in the past nine weeks.

The areas where coronavirus is spreading most rapidly now are very different to the ones that saw the first cases.

There are a number of ways to look at how rapidly coronavirus is spreading in different communities right now.

The simplest is just to look at the most recent three days of data published by Public Health Wales.

Figures for Tuesday, Wednesday and yesterday suggest the council areas that first saw the most rapid outbreak of coronavirus, in the Aneurin Bevan health board area – which includes the council areas of Newport, Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Torfaen and Monmouthshire – are no longer the biggest problem in Wales.

Experts have said since the beginning that different areas would see the peak at different times.

And a map of latest cases suggests the peak is now shifting elsewhere, see map, right.

The latest figures suggest Rhondda Cynon Taf (RCT), Merthyr Tydfil, Neath Port Talbot and Swansea have had the most cases relative to population in the last three days – as have the communities in the north-west corner of Wales.

For every 100,000 people in the area, RCT has seen 31.6 cases of Covid-19, Merthyr has seen 29, Swansea and Bridgend both 20.7, Neath 19.5.

In north-west Wales, Denbighshire has seen 23 cases for every 100,000 people, Gwynedd 22.5, Conwy 21.3 and Anglesey 17.2.

This is not a totally reliable guide as three days is not a long time period and is easily skewed.

But we can also use health board data to look at the last week – from April 21 to 28 – and it shows a similar picture.

Figures by health board area show fewer cases are being recorded at the moment in Newport and the surrounding areas than in other parts of Wales.

The biggest concentration of new cases, relative to population, are in the Swansea Bay health board area, the Cwm Taf health board area – which covers RCT, Merthyr and Bridgend – and in Cardiff.

For every 100,000 people in the area, the Swansea Bay health board has seen 78 cases of Covid-19 in the last week, Cwm Taf 71 and Cardiff 63.

Why some areas are seeing faster spread now is not clear from the data.

It could be because lockdown is not being respected so well in those areas or because second home owners are travelling to north-west Wales.

It could also simply show that the virus will peak in different areas at different times. And that poses a difficult challenge for the Welsh Government as it assesses how to come out of lockdown.

You could look at the figures for the number of deaths however it is not the best guide we have to where coronavirus is spreading right now.

It takes five days to a week before anyone infected with coronavirus will show any symptoms. It can take two weeks after showing symptoms for those who are susceptible to the disease to fall seriously ill and be hospitalised.

People can also stay in intensive care for a further week or more before they recover or, sadly, die.

The most comprehensive data for deaths comes from the Office for National Statistics.

This includes deaths where doctors have included Covid-19 on the death certificate even where it has not been confirmed in a lab.

However this is more than a week out of date when it is published. Latest figures, published on Tuesday refer to the week from the week from April 10 to April 17.

They are more a measure of the heartbreak each area has suffered than where Covid-19 is spreading now. In truth, they probably show how rapidly coronavirus was spreading in each part of Wales in early March.

These figures reveal the five areas that saw the biggest increase in deaths relative to population that week were:

Blaenau Gwent with 24.4 deaths for every 100,000 people in the area;

Merthyr Tydfil with 19.9 deaths for every 100,000 people in the area;

Caerphilly with 18.8 deaths for every 100,000 people in the area;

Cardiff with 17.7 deaths for every 100k people in the area; and

Swansea with 16.6 deaths for every 100k people in the area.

The council areas that recorded the most cases on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday Reletive to population (100k people)