LOCKDOWN TO CONTINUE
BUT CHANGES TO THE RULES INVOLVING EXERCISE, LIBRARIES, GARDEN CENTRES AND RECYCLING ARE ANNOUNCED AS DEATH TOLL RISES AGAIN
LOCKDOWN restrictions in Wales have been extended for a further three weeks, though three “small adjustments” are due to come into force on Monday.
First Minister Mark Drakeford, pictured below, told a press conference in Cardiff yesterday that the latest evidence showed the first peak of coronavirus infections had been passed in the country.
He said Wales’ chief medical officer Frank Atherton had warned it was too soon to lift lockdown restrictions as it would lead to a “return of the virus”.
However, Mr Drakeford said three “very small and modest adjustments” could be made.
“The first will be to the oncea-day exercise rule because the more we learn about coronavirus, the evidence shows us that the risk of infection is reduced outdoors,” he said.
“We will adjust our regulations to allow people to go outside to exercise more than once per day but we will strengthen our regulations to make it clearer that that exercise must be local.
“It should begin and end at home and it should not involve any significant travel away from home.
“Our second planned change to the regulations is to allow garden centres to reopen, provided the social distancing rules can be applied.
“Thirdly, we propose changing the regulations to allow local authorities to begin planning how to safely reopen libraries and municipal recycling centres.
“These very cautious changes will apply to everyone other than the 120,000 people in the shielding group. It’s really important that people in that group continue to follow the shielding advice they have received from the Chief Medical Officer.”
Mr Drakeford said it was for Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who is due to make a statement at 7pm tomorrow, to decide the steps that would be taken in England.
But he added: “I don’t believe that we will see anywhere in the United Kingdom anything other than the most modest of immediate changes.”
Mr Drakeford said the changes represented “small, modest adjustments to the regulations” which would not have an impact on the reproduction rate of the virus.
He said even with the reproduction
rate (known as the R value) as it is, there was an anticipation that another 800 people will die in Wales with coronavirus over the next three months.
The R value – the number of people the average infected individual would spread the virus to – in Wales is currently about 0.8.
Mr Drakeford said even an increase from 0.8 to 1.1 would see hospital admissions “take off” and allow coronavirus to “spiral back to where it was”. He said in terms of deaths, the difference between the two rates was 800 and 7,200 over the next three months.
Current modelling shows another 800 people will die in Wales with coronavirus over the next three months if the R rate remains at 0.8. If that increased to 0.9 the number of deaths would increase to 1,400. At an R rate of 1.1 there would be 7,200 deaths between May 8 and August 7, with a predicted 47,600 cases in that scenario and 25,700 hospital admissions.
Mr Drakeford added: “This is why, here in Wales, your government has decided the stay-at-home regulations will remain in place until the next review date in three weeks’ time.
“We must not lose the progress we have made. All of us must continue to work from home wherever they can. All of us must only travel when absolutely necessary. All of us must continue to observe the 2m social distancing and to wash our hands often. These measures will continue to protect us all from coronavirus and save lives.”
The First Minister said the R level was measured in three locations – hospitals, the community, and care homes.
The R value is believed to be slightly higher in care homes than the community level in Wales, though Mr Drakeford said the evidence was not precise enough to give a “definitive” figure.
“We will watch the level in the community like a hawk,” he said, adding that if levels crept back up “we will reimpose some of the restrictions we’ve already seen”. He added: “If [the changes] have any unintended consequences or don’t operate in the way we expect, we will be able to intervene again.”
Ministers in Wales must review the need for the requirements and restrictions in the regulations every 21 days. The measures, first introduced in March, impose strict restrictions on gatherings, the movement of people and the operation of businesses, including closures.
The new measures will come into force on Monday, the First Minister said, with the existing measures remaining in place over the bank holiday weekend.
“These changes will apply to everyone but the 120,000 people in the shielding group. It is really important this group continues to follow the shielding advice,” he said.
“We would also urge people who are over 70, who have an underlying health condition or are pregnant to continue to take extra care to protect themselves. We will keep these restrictions under constant review and will continue to work with the public and our public services as we consider when and how they can be adjusted further while continuing to keep people safe.”
The current measures bar all nonessential travel, with people only allowed to leave their home to buy basic supplies, exercise once a day, for any medical need or to help care for someone, or to work if this cannot be done at home. The stringent measures, which are punishable with fines if they are breached, will largely continue for another three weeks.
The lockdown, which initially came into force following an announcement by Prime Minister Boris Johnson on March 23, will have therefore been in place in Wales for more than two months by the time the next legallyrequired review comes around.
Mr Johnson will tomorrow reportedly announce a five-phase, six-month plan to slowly bring England out of lockdown.
Mr Drakeford has signalled repeatedly in the past a desire for the UK to move as one, while on Thursday a Downing Street spokesman said Mr Johnson had told leaders of the devolved nations he was committed to a UK-wide approach to tackling coronavirus “even if different parts of the UK begin to move at slightly different speeds”.
After the extension of Wales’ lockdown, Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price said the Welsh Government must now “significantly step up” plans to test and trace cases.
“It is impossible to overemphasise the stay at home message, with the reproduction number in Wales, which measures transmission, so perilously close to an exponential increase in the number of deaths,” Mr Price said.
“We welcome the cautious approach adopted by the First Minister in his statement today, and implore the UK Prime Minister not to implement an England-wide relaxation of restrictions that would completely undermine this approach and potentially have a disastrous impact on Wales.”
Ian Price, CBI Wales’ director, said: “Putting people’s health first – phasing the easing of lockdown measures – is the only way to restart the economy. And wherever possible, the United Kingdom should act in concert.”
So far 1,062 people have died in Wales after contracting coronavirus while the number of cases stands at 10,851 since the outbreak began.
Cases have now been consistently fallen over the past 10 days with fewer than 200 new cases being reported each day, NHS Wales chief executive Dr Andrew Goodall said on Thursday.