‘Lockdown may have prevented 3m deaths’
AROUND three million deaths may have been prevented by coronavirus lockdowns across Europe, research suggests.
A modelling study from Imperial College London scientists, involving data from 11 European countries up to early May 2020, found that lockdowns had a “substantial effect” in reducing transmission levels of Covid-19.
European countries began implementing social distancing, school closures and national lockdowns in March, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson putting the UK in lockdown on March 23.
The Imperial researchers estimate that across all 11 countries - the UK, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland between 12 and 15 million people were infected with Covid-19 up to May 4, representing between 3.2% and 4.0% of the population.
In their paper, published in the Nature journal, they said the results show that major non-pharmaceutical interventions and lockdown in particular have had a “large effect on reducing transmission”.
The paper says: “Continued intervention should be considered to keep transmission of SARS-CoV-2 under control.”
By comparing the deaths predicted under a model with no interventions to the deaths predicted in an intervention model, the researchers calculated that 3.1 million deaths have been averted across the 11 countries due to interventions since the beginning of the epidemic.
Dr Samir Bhatt, study author from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute (J-IDEA), Imperial College London, said: “This data suggests that without any interventions, such as lockdown and school closures, there could have been many more deaths from Covid-19.
“The rate of transmission has declined from high levels to ones under control in all European countries we study.
“Our analysis also suggests far more infections in these European countries than previously estimated.
“Careful consideration should now be given to the continued measures that are needed to keep SARS-CoV-2 transmission under control.”
The publication of the research comes after Health Secretary Matt Hancock insisted the Government made the “right decisions at the right time” with the lockdown, despite a leading scientist saying lives would have been saved had ministers acted sooner.