Test and trace system struggling to reach the same numbers of people as it was a month ago

WALES’ test and trace system is working better than England’s, although a rise in cases means tracers are struggling to reach the same amount of people as they were a month ago.

Last month it was revealed that the test and trace system in Wales was working significantly better than that in England.

Between the week August 30 and September 5, tracers in Wales made contact with 96% of positive coronavirus cases that were eligible for a follow up. In comparison in England, tracers reached 82.7% of people transferred to the test and trace system there between August 27 and September 2.

Several weeks later, followed by a month in which cases in both England and Wales increased exponentially, tracers in Wales continue to reach more people compared with those in England; however, the number of people they have been able to reach has decreased.

There are differences between how the data is collected in Wales and England due to the different schemes in place, but we have compared the data as closely as possible.

The latest data released by England’s Department of Health and Social care shows that out of the 34,494 people transferred to the contact tracing system between September 24 and 30, 25,531 (74%) were reached.

Between that same time frame, 101,782 people were identified as recent close contacts to positive cases.

Considering only the close contacts where communication details were provided, 82.2% were reached and asked to self-isolate.

In Wales, for the closest comparable week between September 27 and October 3, out of the 2,700 positive cases that were eligible for a follow up, 2,409 (89%) people were reached.

Out of the close contacts of those people reached by contact tracers in Wales, tracers were able to successfully contact 7,373 (87%) out of 8,475.

Comparing these weeks, contact tracers in Wales are reaching around 15% more positive cases than those in England. Although the number of close contacts successfully followed up when contact details were provided was closer, tracers in Wales still reached around 5% more people than tracers in England for the closest comparable time frame.

The test and trace system in Wales is run in collaboration with Public Health Wales, Welsh Government and local authorities while in England, test and trace is largely outsourced to firms including Serco.

The most recent data in Wales shows a slight decline in the number of people being reached by contact tracers.

In the week between October 4 and October 10, of the 3,557 positive cases eligible for follow-up, 3,019 (85%) people were reached, down by 5% on the week before.

Out of the 12,857 close contacts eligible for a follow-up, 11,434 (89%) of people were successfully contacted and advised accordingly. This is up by 2% the week before.

Public Health Wales incident director Dr Eleri Davies said an increase in cases “puts pressure on the system”.

She said: “The track and trace system is a joint effort between us, the Welsh Government and local authorities.

“Clearly, as numbers go up it puts pressure on the system. That’s an inevitability. But we are following up the cases and the aim is to track and trace the spread of the virus and take appropriate actions.

“It’s important that people respond to any calls they receive and are open and frank about their contacts so we can do this effectively.”

Over the last month, the number of positive cases being contacted by contact tracers has continued to decline.

During September 6-12, 95% of positive cases eligible for follow-up were reached. In the week September 13-19, 94% were reached. The following week, September 20-26, 91% of people were reached and between September 27 and October 3, 89% of people were reached.

The decrease in the amount of people being successfully contacted by contact tracers has coincided with the rise in cases in Wales.

At the beginning of September (6-12), there were 961 positive cases eligible for a follow-up with contact tracers. In the last week, between October 4 and 11, there were 3,557.