‘Plan could hugely cut virus rates’ - scientists

A “FIREBREAK” lockdown in Wales could “massively reduce” Covid-19 transmission in Wales and prevent hundreds of deaths, according to scientists.

Advice from the Welsh Government’s Tactical Advisory Group was published yesterday after the lockdown announcement.

The 13-page document warned there would be “significant harm” in Wales unless action was taken.

Health Minister Vaughan Gething described the report as “a very sobering read”, which set out how exponential growth of coronavirus is being seen in every part of Wales.

“We are currently tracking to our reasonable worst case that projects around 18,000 hospitalisations and 6,000 deaths due to Covid-19 over the winter period,” the report states.

“By comparison, since the beginning of the pandemic there have been around 5,300 hospital cases, around 1,800 of which may have been hospital acquired, and around 2,600 deaths from Covid.”

There are currently 488 patients with confirmed cases of coronavirus in hospitals in Wales, with 40 in critical care beds.

The report says local lockdown restrictions, currently in force across 17 areas of Wales, have led to a “significant slowdown in the current wave of the pandemic”.

But it warns compliance with the measures is waning and the R value - the number of people each coronavirus case infects - has not been reduced below one.

It says there is “compelling evidence” for reducing transmission as far as possible by preventing household, work place and social contacts.

A “firebreak” lockdown for between two to three weeks “should act” to reduce R below one, the document advises.

If people adhere to the measures, two weeks of growth in coronavirus cases could be “exchanged” for two weeks of decay in transmission.

But it warns “multiple circuitbreaks might be necessary to maintain low levels of incidence.”

The R value in Wales is currently estimated to be between 1.1 and 1.4 in Wales.

Swansea University’s reasonable worst case model, using an R value of 1.4, estimates 2,500 Covid-19 deaths between October 12 and December 31. This rises to 4,890 between October 12 and March 31 if no action is taken.

But with a two-week lockdown, the estimated deaths fall to 1,540 between October 12 and December 31, and 4,140 between October 12 and March 31.

The report recommends a “hard national firebreak to massively reduce transmission for a period of weeks” and then a set of “sustainable, national interventions”.