Opposition to independence shrinks to lowest ever level

OPPOSITION to Welsh independence has fallen to its lowest ever level, with just half of people now saying they would vote No in a referendum on the issue. Results from the WalesOnline/YouGov St David’s Day poll show just 50% of people say they would definitely oppose independence in a national vote. Our poll shows the continuation of the remarkable growth in support for the independence movement which has seen consistent growth since the Brexit referendum with the current coronavirus crisis adding to that momentum. While active support for independence remains at the 25% high watermark recorded in polling throughout the pandemic, the proportion answering “don’t know” has swelled to 14% - adding to the swelling uncertainty about the future of the UK.

Among those giving a definitive answer, 33% say they would vote Yes on independence for Wales, while 67% say they would vote no.

In answer to the question: “If there was a referendum tomorrow on Wales becoming an independent country and this was the question, how would you vote?”, 25% said they would answer yes, 50% said no, 9% said they would not vote, and 14% said they didn’t know, with a further 2% refusing to answer.

The figure of 50% of those polled saying they would vote against independence is the lower level seen in the polls.

A YouGov poll of 2014 put the figure at 70%, dropping to 65% straight after the EU referendum in 2016, most of the polls in 2019 put the “no” level at around 57% with a series of polls since the crisis putting it in the low 50s at between 52-54%.

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The number of people who would vote “yes” was fairly consistent with other recent polls.

Beneath the headline data there was also variances within sub groups with age, previous voting and area all having an impact on people’s support for independence.

The younger people are the more likely they were to support independence with 40% of 16-14-year-olds saying they would vote yes if there was a referendum on Welsh independence tomorrow.

This falls to just 15% in over 65s.

The part of Wales with the highest levels of support for independence was in and around Cardiff with 34% of those polled indicating they would vote yes. The north of Wales was the most sceptical with just 17 indicating support.

Unsurprisingly, people who voted Plaid Cymru in the last general election were massively in favour of independence with 62% supporting independence. Conservative voters skewed the other way with just 8% supporting it. Previous Labour voters seemed far more on the fence with 38% saying yes and 39% saying no.

A split was also seen based on how people voted in the 2016 referendum on EU membership with leave voters 18 percentage points more likely to vote against independence than remain.