Mass testing ‘pivotal in response to pandemic’
MASS testing in Merthyr Tydfil and the Cynon Valley is estimated to have prevented hundreds of coronavirus cases and more than a dozen deaths.
The programme, which ran between November and December, involved 22,021 asymptomatic residents and Merthyr Tydfil and 10,457 in the Cynon Valley using lateral flow device (LFD) which give results in 30 minutes.
An evaluation of the scheme estimates that it helped prevent 353 cases of Covid-19, 24 hospitalisations, five intensive care unit admissions and 14 deaths.
The evaluation also found that: ■■the pilot caused an immediate reduction in the level of Covid-19 in the areas;
■■more than a tenth of cases that would have otherwise occurred were prevented. This represents a 6-12% reduction in pressure on the NHS; and
■■the estimated net monetary benefit of the testing pilot was £5.8m, which means a benefit-cost ratio of around 11 for the £516,000 the pilot cost, or a return on investment of around £10.30 per £1 spent.
The positivity rate was 2.3% in Merthyr Tydfil and 2.6% in the Cynon Valley. The report found higher positivity rates in men, younger people, those living in deprived areas, and in occupations where close contact is more likely such as transport and hospitality, manufacturing and construction, health and social care, retail and arts and entertainment.
Professor Kelechi Nnoaham, director of Public Health for Cwm Taf Morgannwg University Health Board, said: “I’m excited to share this report evaluating the success of our whole area testing pilot.
“The results speak for themselves, with a conservative estimate of more than 350 cases of Covid-19 and 14 deaths prevented. This is not only positive news for our communities, but the evaluation shows that the pilot eased the pressure on our hospitals and key workers when it was most needed, and was a good investment, with a total benefit in monetary terms of £5.8m.
“I believe this report will be invaluable to anyone interested in using lateral flow device testing as part of a wider testing strategy, both in Wales and around the world. It shows that LFD testing has the potential to be a key part of our Test Trace Protect system as we look more confidently towards recovery, and provides real experience for other areas considering a similar approach. The full evaluation report provides a blueprint for others to use.
“I’d like to thank the partners who collaborated with us at all stages of the process, and the communities who engaged with us to make sure it was a success.”
Between one in four and one in three people who have coronavirus never show any symptoms, so LFD tests can help identify people with the virus who do not have symptoms and would not otherwise come forward for a test.
Other conclusions from the evaluation include:
■■the vast majority (99.6%) of those attending the mass testing centres were asymptomatic, showing the community understood the purpose of testing and presented appropriately; ■■transmission within households was the most important source of infection;
■■working in the hospitality sector and visiting the pub were also significant risks but due to the Covid-19 restrictions at the time, these were infrequent exposures; ■■smoking or vaping had a small but significant effect; ■■working in education, living with someone working in education, having caring responsibilities and visiting a supermarket, restaurant, gym or leisure centre did not appear to increase risk of infection; and
■■the lower testing uptake in groups of the population with higher positivity rates has clearly demonstrated an “inverse testing law”. This will be important in informing future testing strategies.
Health Minister Vaughan Gething confirmed yesterday that asymptomatic community testing programmes will be extended to the end of September.
It has been taking place in Bridgend, Merthyr Tydfil and Rhondda Cynon Taf since the beginning of March.
Access to self-testing kits will also be made available to people who cannot work from home to help identify asymptomatic coronavirus cases and keep people safe as restrictions are eased.
Mr Gething said: “Up to one in three people who have coronavirus have no symptoms at all and can therefore spread it unknowingly.
“Testing remains pivotal in our response to the pandemic.”