Labour on course for its worst Senedd election – poll
WELSH Labour is facing the possibility of its worst Senedd election result since devolution began in 1999, according to a new poll.
The party is predicted to get 32% of the vote in the constituency section of the ballot, down two points from the last poll in January, with the Conservatives on 30% (+4).
Plaid Cymru is in third place on 23% (+1) the Liberal Democrats on 5% (+1), Reform UK on 3% (-2), the Greens on 2% (-4) and Others on 5% (+1).
The YouGov poll for ITV Wales and Cardiff University was published yesterday, and coincided with the launch of the Conservatives’ Senedd election campaign.
The party said it will “build a better Wales” if elected, and the party’s leader Andrew RT Davies promised new jobs, to freeze council tax for two years and an M4 relief road – a scheme scrapped in 2019 by the Labour run Welsh Government after years of wrangling.
The poll’s figures also give Labour (31%, a change of +1) a narrow lead over the Conservatives (28%, a change of +3) in the regional section of the ballot.
Plaid got 22% of the regional vote (-1), Abolish the Welsh Assembly 7% (no change), the Lib Dems 4% (no change), the Greens 3% (-2) and Others 4% (-2).
Professor Roger Scully, of Cardiff University, said: “Our new poll shows a substantial shrinkage in Labour’s advantage, and a clear improvement in the position of the Welsh Conservatives.
“While we should always be cautious about over-interpreting a single poll, these numbers are close to those found by YouGov in another recent poll (for Wales Online); they are also very much in line with the changes seen in recent Britain-wide polling, which has suggested some strengthening of the Conservative position and a modest Labour decline.
“The polling continues to indicate that there are three major parties in the contest for the Senedd.
“But Labour’s status as the leading one of those parties no longer looks as if it can be taken for granted.
“A uniform swing projection of the changes in party support since May 2016 indicated by this poll suggests that the Conservatives would make five constituency gains from Labour: the Vale of Glamorgan, the Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Wrexham and Cardiff North.
“On top of these Labour losses, the projection also indicates three seats going from them to Plaid Cymru: Llanelli, Blaenau Gwent and Cardiff West – although developments in all three constituencies since 2016 must make such Plaid gains less likely than the uniform swing projection suggests.”
Considering the regional polling figures, Prof Scully said: “The position of the Conservatives as the strongest challenger to Labour appears to be reaffirmed by the findings here.
“While Plaid Cymru continue to be in a fairly strong third place, there are no current signs of them gaining any significant ground on the two parties ahead of them.
“Another interesting aspect of our new Barometer poll is that it continues to show the anti-devolution Abolish the Assembly party at a level of support that might well win them some regional list seats in the Senedd.”
Based on uniform swings, the regional would split as follows:
■ North Wales: 1 Labour, 1 Plaid, 1 Conservative, 1 Abolish the Assembly;
■ Mid and West Wales: 2 Labour, 1 Conservative, 1 Abolish the Assembly;
■ South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid;
■ South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 Abolish the Assembly; and
■ South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 Abolish the Assembly.
Overall, Labour would win 22 seats, the Conservatives 19, Plaid Cymru 14, Abolish the Assembly four and the Liberal Democrats one.
Prof Scully said: “Labour must still be the strong favourites to be national list seats the largest party in the Senedd after the election: they still lead in all recent polls, and they have a track record of having finished well ahead in all previous devolved Welsh elections; even in difficult years for Labour, none of their opponents have yet been able to come close to defeating them for first place.
“But the evidence from our latest poll does suggest that Labour’s dominance may be challenged more strongly than ever before in 2021.”
Asked how Boris Johnson was doing his job as Prime Minister, 39% said well and 54% said badly.
Asked how Mark Drakeford was doing his job as First Minister, 57% said well and 34% said badly.
A referendum on rejoining the EU would be evenly split, with 40% saying the UK should rejoin and 39% saying we should not do so. A referendum on Welsh independence would see 22% voting Yes and 55% voting No.
In all instances, the remainder comprised those who said they didn’t know how they would vote, those who said they wouldn’t vote and those who refused to say.
Meanwhile, as trailed in yesterday’s paper, the Welsh Conservatives yesterday launched their Senedd election with a range of promises, including: creating 65,000 new jobs; a council tax freeze for at least the next two years; a £2bn fund for an M4 Relief Road; new hospitals and extra funding for the NHS every year, with 3,000 more nurses and 1,200 doctors; 5,000 more teachers and more investment in Welsh education; more police and a promise to cut crime; restoring the right to buy in Wales; and making Wales net zero by 2050.
Mr Davies used a campaign video to tell people his party was offering “real change”.
“If the past year has shown us anything, it’s that when it comes to the crunch, people in Wales step up.
“So now we need a Welsh Government that does the same because the pandemic has put Wales at a crossroads. And the election will decide which road we take.
“So on May 6, we’ll decide whether we get more of the same setbacks and letdowns of the last 20 years under Labour or whether we take our chance to get real change.
“That’s what I am about, and that’s what the Welsh Conservatives’ are about.
“We have a plan for our nation’s recovery – a plan that reaches every city, town and community in Wales.”
Labour has already launched its campaign, and Plaid Cymru’s will take place on Friday.
Mr Davies said the party’s manifesto will follow, which will list how the list of policies would be paid for, but said these were the issues people wanted addressing and that money was being made available from the UK Government.
Asked if he believed he would be First Minister after the election, due in May, he said: “The people of Wales will decide that.
“In 2019, 550,000 people voted for Welsh Conservatives and there are only two parties that can say they are in a position to form a government.
“We have got to energise centre right voters and and this is a chance in a generation to end 21 years of rule by Labour”.
■ The Welsh Political Barometer poll, for ITV Wales and Cardiff University, had a sample of 1,174 Welsh adults aged 16+ and was carried out online by YouGov between March 16 and March 19.